元胞自动机在经验型连带外部效应市场模拟中的应用  

Application of Cellular Automata in Market with Consumers' Experience and Behavioral Interdependence

作　　者：陈荣[1] 顾斌[2] 李绍铭[3] 余亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理学院,马鞍山,243002 [2]安徽工业大学计算机学院,马鞍山,243002 [3]安徽工业大学电气学院,马鞍山,243002

出　　处：《科研管理》2001年第6期128-134,共7页Science Research Management

基　　金：安徽省教委科研项目资助 (99JL0 16 9)

摘　　要：对于诸如操作系统或者计算机软件之类产品而言 ,需求很明显地具有连带外部效应并受到客户学习经验的影响。本文介绍了关于这类产品之间市场竞争的模拟研究。事实上 ,对于这类产品而言 ,客户在选择产品的时候需要考虑自己已经使用过某产品多长时间 (客户通过使用产品而积累经验 )以及周围有多少人使用该产品 (连带外部效应 )。通过给每个元胞添加记忆单元 ,本文给出关于此类产品竞争的智能体元胞自动机以及相关的模拟结果。对于大多数初始条件而言 ,通常只有一种产品可以生存下来并且占据整个市场 ;不过当经验因素比较重要的时候 ,两种产品都可以生存下来。Competition between such products as operating systems or applications for which demand is crucially affected by network externalities and consumers' experience is described in this paper. In fact consumers' decision for such products seem strongly depend on how long they have used (consumers' learning by doing) and how many of others will use them (network externally). By giving memory to each cell to the Cellular automata model, a CA+Agent model and results of its simulations is given. Among them: that only one product may survive competition for most initial conditions; while the influence for products do increase very much by learning, both product will survive. And very small difference in the initial condition may change the final winner.

关 键 词：连带外部效应 元胞自动机 市场模拟 产品竞争 

分 类 号：F713.5[经济管理—市场营销]