现今地壳运动与地震前兆研究  

RESEARCHES ON CURRENT CRUST MOVEMENTS AND EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS

作　　者：吴云[1] 申重阳[1] 乔学军[1] 周硕愚[1] 秦小军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震研究所,武汉430071

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2002年第1期22-28,共7页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家 973项目<大陆强震机理与预测>子课题 (G19980 40 70 4);国家自然基金 (4 0 0 740 2 4)课题资助

摘　　要：基于 GPS观测数据 ,采用 DDA反演算法和位错正、反演算法 ,分别计算了地壳块体系统的形变和各块体边界 (断层带 )的错动以及边界附近的应变分布。与历史地震活动状况相比较 ,初步证明获得的地壳块体系统的运动和应变图像是可信的。总体来看 ,强震活跃区与高应变块体和强活动边界带有较明显的对应关系 ,这一特征有助于判定长中期地震大形势或背景 ;应变集中区及其邻近区域与强震区尽管不具有一一对应的关系 ,但多数强震确实发生在这些区域 ,即应变趋于集中并与邻区不断增大差异的区域有较大可能发生强震 ;也可以直接从速度场图像判定危险区 。On the basis of GPS observational data, dislocation on boundaries and strain inside blocks of a multi block system are computed with Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA) and Dislocation Model (DM). It can be attested primarily that these patterns of motion and deformation of the block system, compared with historical seismicity, are believable. It can also be found that areas of strong seismicity are obviously corresponding to strong strain regions and intensively active boundaries, this correspondence is very useful to estimate general situation and background of strong earthquakes at long and middle term duration. The expression in more detail is that the strain concentrated region and neighborhood, and the notable change belt or area in velocity field, are likely a high risk region of strong earthquakes in the future.

关 键 词：GPS 地壳形变 地震前兆 地震预测 全球定位系统 

分 类 号：P315.725[天文地球—地震学] P227[天文地球—固体地球物理学]