基于克莱姆法则的无偏区间灰数预测模型及其应用  

Unbiased grey prediction model of interval grey numbers and its application by using Cramer rule

作　　者：李树良[1] 曾波[1] 孟伟[1] LI Shu-liang;ZENG Bo;MENG Wei(College of Business Planning,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学商务策划学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《控制与决策》2018年第12期2258-2262,共5页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71771033);教育部人文社科研究西部和边疆地区项目(18XJC630003);重庆市教委科学技术研究计划项目(KJQN201800805);重庆市社科规划委托项目(2016WT37)

摘　　要：以提高区间灰数预测模型的精度为目的,构建标准化区间灰数"白部序列"及"灰部序列"的无偏灰色预测模型,应用克莱姆法则研究该模型的参数估计方法,并推导出该模型的时间响应式及最终还原式.最后,将该模型应用于城市外来工数量的模拟及预测,并将结果与既有方法进行比较.结果显示,新构建的灰色模型性能优于传统的区间灰数预测模型.该研究成果对丰富和完善区间灰数预测模型方法体系具有积极意义.Based on the white sequence and grey sequence of an interval grey number sequence of standardization, two new unbiased grey prediction models are built respectively in order to improve the accuracy of the interval grey number prediction model. The method of parameter estimation of the model is studied, and its time response expression and the final restored expression are deduced by using Cramer rule. Finally, the proposed model is applied to forecast the number of urban migrant workers, and compared with the existing method. The results show that the performance of the proposed grey model is superior to the traditional prediction model of interval grey number. The result has a positive significance on enriching and perfecting the system of the interval grey number prediction model methods.

关 键 词：灰色系统 预测模型 区间灰数 无偏建模 参数估计 克莱姆法则 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学] C921[社会学—人口学]