长三角地区重点源减排对PM_(2.5)浓度的影响  

Effects of Emission Reductions of Key Sources on the PM_(2.5) Concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：于燕 王泽华 崔雪东 陈锋 徐宏辉 YU Yan;WANG Ze-hua;CUI Xue-dong;CHEN Feng;XU Hong-hui(Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hangzhou 310008,China;Environmental Science Research and Design Institute of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310007,China;Zhejiang Meteorological Safety Technology Center,Hangzhou 310008,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310008 [2]浙江省环境保护科学设计研究院,杭州310007 [3]浙江省气象安全技术中心,杭州310008

出　　处：《环境科学》2019年第1期11-23,共13页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0201900);国家自然科学基金项目(91544229);浙江省气象科技计划项目(2017ZD11-4);浙江省科技计划项目(2018F10032);中国气象局省级气象科研所科技创新发展项目(SSFZ201810)

摘　　要：应用中尺度天气-化学预报模式(WRF-Chem),基于重点源(八大重点行业与交通)一般与强化两组减排情景,针对2013年开展长三角地区重点源减排对PM_(2.5)浓度影响的模拟研究.长三角地区SO2、NOx、PM_(2.5)和NMVOC排放在一般减排情景下分别减少36.3%、26.3%、32.0%、14.6%,强化减排情景下分别减少51.4%、39.6%、37.6%、28.4%.模拟结果表明,两组减排情景下长三角地区国控点PM_(2.5)年均浓度分别下降1.4~26.7μg·m^(-3)和2.1~32.3μg·m^(-3),降幅分别为2.7%~23.1%和3.9%~27.5%,二次无机盐中硝酸盐对年均PM_(2.5)浓度的降低贡献最大.PM_(2.5)及二次无机盐浓度变化的季节特征均体现为冬季降幅最小,夏季降幅最大,并且随着减排力度的增强,夏季降幅的进一步降低程度最显著,导致削减效果的季节差异增大.重点源强化减排即可使得上海、江苏夏季PM_(2.5)浓度降低约20%.对大气氧化性的进一步分析表明,减排对四季大气氧化性均有不同程度的增强,加大减排力度后,大气氧化性进一步增强,有利于二次PM_(2.5)的生成,从而阻碍了PM_(2.5)浓度的降低.其中,冬季的阻碍作用最强,导致PM_(2.5)污染改善效果最差.夏季大气氧化性受减排影响较小,从而使得PM_(2.5)污染改善在四季中最有效.此外,春、秋季的阻碍作用也不容忽视.The effects of emission reductions of key sources (eight key industries and transportation) on the PM2.5 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were investigated using the weather research forecast-chemistry (WRF-Chem) model in 2013 combined with two normal and enhanced emission reduction scenarios. The SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and NMVOC emissions in the YRD decrease by 36.3%, 26.3%, 32.0%, and 14.6% and by 51.4%, 39.6%, 37.6%, and 28.4% under the normal and enhanced emission reduction scenarios, respectively. The simulation results show that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations over the national environmental monitoring sites in the YRD decline by 1.4-26.7 μg·m^-3 and 2.1-32.3 μg·m^-3, reflecting a decrease of 2.7%-23.1% and 3.9%-27.5%, under the two emission reduction scenarios, respectively. The nitrate in secondary inorganic aerosols contributes the most to the reduction of the annual mean PM2.5 concentration. The seasonal variation characteristics of the PM2.5 and secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations reflect that the smallest and largest declining rates occur in winter and summer, respectively. With increasing emission reduction, the declining rates of PM2.5 and the secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations in summer increase more compared with those in other seasons, resulting in a greater seasonal variation of the rates. The PM2.5 concentrations decrease by^20% in Shanghai and the Jiangsu Province under the enhanced emission scenario in summer. The analysis of the atmospheric oxidation shows that the atmospheric oxidation capacity is enhanced to different degrees by emission reductions of key sources in all seasons;it is further enhanced with increasing emission reduction. The enhanced oxidation capacity favors the formation of secondary PM2.5, thereby hindering the reduction of the PM2.5 concentration. The strongest hindrance occurs in winter, resulting in the worst PM2.5 pollution improvement. The atmospheric oxidation capacity is less affected by emission reductions of key sources in summer,

关 键 词：减排 PM2.5 长三角地区 中尺度天气-化学预报模式(WRF-Chem) 大气污染控制 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]