当前国际油价下跌趋势预测与应对策略  

Forecasting and Coping Strategies of the Current International Oil Price Downward Trend

作　　者：高新伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院 [2]山东省能源经济管理研究中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第11期62-62,86,共2页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：针对目前的国际油价单边下跌的情景,综合分析了油价下跌的原因,并分别从短期、中期和长期视角预测了国际油价区间,认为WTI和Brent的中期合理价位应该在目前的每桶50-60美元,最后提出了不同价格水平下的石油公司的短期和长期对策建议。In view of the current unilateral decline in international oil price, I comprehensively analyze the reasons for decline and predict the international oil price from the short-term, medium-term and long-term perspectives. We think that the medium-term reasonable price of WTI and Brent should be in $50/barrel and $60/barrel respectively, which are also the current price is rationable. Finally, we propose the short-term and long-term countermeasures for oil companies at different price levels.

关 键 词：国际油价 油价预测 油价下跌走势 成品油消费税改革 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1