应对碳价格波动的新能源汽车联合生产策略  

Joint production strategies of new energy vehicle with carbon price disruption

作　　者：程永伟[1,2] 穆东 Cheng Yongwei;Mu Dong(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Bcijing 100044,China;Academy of Modem Logistics Industry,Beijing Wuzi University,Bcijing 101149,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]北京物资学院现代物流产业研究院,北京101149

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2018年第6期780-792,共13页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473013;71772016);教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(17YJC630203);教育部人文社科规划基金资助项目(16YJAZH012);北京物资学院校级重大资助项目(2017XJZD05);北京物资学院科技协同攻关团队建设资助项目(2017GG06;2018XJGG01)

摘　　要：建立了碳交易制下传统燃油车与新能源汽车的联合生产决策模型,分析了碳价格对汽车生产商产量、定价及利润的影响,在配额交易量不受限和受限两种情形下,得到了碳价格波动下生产计划的鲁棒区间及其应急调整策略,建立非线性规划模型求解扰动管理下最优的初始生产计划,最后通过数值算例验证了文中结论的正确性.研究表明:在新能源汽车发展初期,碳交易制对生产决策的影响相对较大,随着碳价格升高,新能源汽车的竞争优势逐步增强;初始生产计划存在非对称性鲁棒区间,初始生产计划的优化方向与鲁棒区间的非对称倾斜方向一致;交易限量的存在将改变最优调整策略和生产计划的应急响应区间.This study models joint production decision-making of traditional and new energy vehicles considering carbon trading, and analyzes the effect of carbon price on vehicle productivity, pricing and profit. The robustness range and emergency adjustment strategies of production planning are obtained considering carbon price disruption, assuming carbon quota trading volume is unlimited or limited respectively. Furthermore, a nonlinear programming model is built to improve the initial production planning with carbon price disruption,and a numerical analysis verifies the above conclusions. The results show that carbon trading significantly affects production decision at the primary stage of new energy vehicles development, and that the competitiveness of new energy vehicles increases with carbon prices. There exists asymmetry in the robustness range of initial production planning and its improving direction is the same as the asymmetry direction of robustness range. The results also demonstrate that carbon trading limitation may change the optimal solutions and the corresponding emergency response interval of initial production planning.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 碳价格 碳交易 扰动管理 联合决策 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]