城镇化进程中土地利用对癌症发病率的影响研究——以我国60个市/县级样本为例  

Study on the Impact of Land Use on Cancer Incidence in the Process of Urbanization: A Case Study of 60 Cities/Counties in China

作　　者：张博 田莉[2] 李晴[3] ZHANG Bo;TIAN Li;LI Qing

机构地区：[1]湖南省建筑设计院有限公司,湖南长沙410000 [2]清华大学建筑学院,北京100084 [3]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200000

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2018年第12期15-25,共11页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51878367);国家重点研发计划(2018YFD1100105)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,我国经历的快速城镇化进程正在迅速改变居民的生活方式,癌症逐渐成为居民公共健康的主要威胁。作为城乡规划的核心议题之一,土地利用被证实会影响公共健康,但关于土地利用对癌症发病率的影响研究十分有限。为此,探索土地利用对癌症发病率的影响对改善公共健康具有重要的现实意义。以《2012年中国肿瘤登记年报》中发布的60个市/县级样本作为研究对象进行分析。首先分析了癌症发病率的空间分布特征,发现部分癌症发病率与土地利用变量在空间分布上存在相似性。然后,采用结构方程模型分析土地利用变量对癌症发病率的影响路径。研究发现:在城镇化早、中期阶段,城镇建设用地面积与城镇建设用地形状指数会影响工业废气与工业废水排放量,从而对乳腺癌(女性)、结直肠肛门癌、膀胱癌和肾及泌尿系统癌症的发病率产生显著影响。Since the reform and opening up, the rapid urbanization has dramatically changed people′s lifestyles, and cancer has become the main threat to public health of people in China. Based on previous research, land use has played an essential role in public health. However, research on the impact of land use on cancer incidence is very limited. In order to explore the impact of land use on cancer incidence, this paper takes 60 cities/counties which were published in the ′2012 China Cancer Registry Annual Report′ as cases, and analyzes the spatial distribution of cancer incidence and finds that there is similarity in the spatial distribution of some cancer incidences and land use variables. Then, the structural square model is used to analyze the path how variables of land could influence the incidence of cancer. We find that in the early and middle stages of urbanization, the size and land shape index of the urban construction land would have the significant impact on breast cancer(female), colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, and kidney and urinary tract through the pathway of industrial waste gas and water.

关 键 词：土地利用 癌症发病率 间接影响 结构方程 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]