动态经济环境下CoPS合作双方违约机理及防范  

Default Mechanism and Prevention of CoPS Partners in a Dynamic Economic Environment

作　　者：陈占夺 CHEN Zhanduo(China Business Executives Academy,Dalian 116086,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]中国大连高级经理学院,辽宁大连116086

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2019年第1期40-51,共12页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助项目(L16BJY008);辽宁省教育厅2014年度科学研究资助一般项目(W2014275);2018年度辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(2018lslktyb-113)

摘　　要：研究了经济环境动态性对复杂产品系统项目合作双方违约行为的影响机理及违约行为防范方法。创新性地使用案例研究和博弈研究两种方法,从经济环境动态性的视角,分为经济上行、经济下行两种动态性的表现,通过多案例分析得到理论模型;再使用博弈分析深入揭示机理,更进一步,应用风险共担利益共享的理念提出改进的博弈模型。研究发现:①复杂产品系统项目合作双方的违约行为主要归因于外部经济环境变化较大时,违约一方的利益受到重大影响,而当外部环境变化较小时不会发生违约行为;②当经济处于上行期且变化较大时,集成商会采取违约行为;③当经济处于下行期且变化较大时,用户会采取违约行为;④风险共担利益共享的事前控制型合约,可以有效促进双方履约,达到双方整体收益最优。This paper studies the effect of a dynamic economic environment on default behaviors of project partners in a complex product of systems(CoPS) project and gives prevention measures to reduce the default behaviors.It uses case study and game study to settle the above problem.From the perspective of dynamic economic environment,including economic upswing and economic downturn,it obtains the theoretical framework for default by case analysis first,and then uncovers the default mechanism by game analysis,and finally,improves the game model,taking into consideration risk-sharing and benefit-sharing into consideration,to reduce the possibility of default behaviors.The results indicate that the key factor causing default behaviors of parties of the CoPS project is the great change in external economic environment which has significantly affected the interests of the defaulting party.When the change in external economic environment is not so great,there is no default behavior.The maker will conduct default behaviors when the economy is in the upswing and changes greatly.The user will conduct default behaviors when the economy is in the downturn and changes greatly.The improved game model,which takes risk-sharing and benefit-sharing into consideration,can reduce the default behaviors effectively and promote both parties to honor the contract.As the result,the whole revenue can reach maximization.

关 键 词：动态经济环境 复杂产品系统 博弈 违约机理 风险共担 利益共享 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理] F270.5[经济管理—国民经济]