时限计划的预测模型和分析  

Forecast Model of Frame Time Planning and Analyzing

作　　者：刘建峰 应长春[2] 秦士元[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海外高桥造船有限公司,上海200137 [2]中国船舶工业集团船舶工艺研究所,上海200030 [3]上海交通大学船舶与海洋工程学院,上海200030

出　　处：《中国造船》2002年第1期8-15,共8页Shipbuilding of China

摘　　要：本文介绍了时限计划的概念、层次、作用范围 ,阐述了造船计划系统的结构。应用 S形曲线研究时限计划的柔性 ,并提出了工时矩阵的概念。建立了 S形曲线的预测模型 。The concept, structure and effecting range of frame time planning are analyzed in the paper. A flexible frame time schedule is studied by using S type curve. The man hour accumulation S curve is analyzed, and its character is generalized into five points. The characters, composition and system structure of flexibility planning, the sustain condition of flexibility planning are studied. The diffe rence between the S curve of Logistic model and the real man hour accumulation S curve, then a prediction modeling of man hour accumulation are put forward. On condition of lack of historical statistic data in China, the model can be used to predict ship's S curve. A new conception 'man hour matrix' is presented in the paper. With its application, the macroscopic control of manpower, man hour cost, capital and material can be realized. The procedure and the method of setting up midterm plan by using S curves as well as the strategy of adjusting available man hour and necessary man hour are also explained.

关 键 词：时限计划 预测模型 S型曲线 工时矩阵 船舶 建造策略 船厂 

分 类 号：U673.2[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] F407.474[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]