面向光伏建筑的发电量预测方法  

A method of power generation forecasting for photovoltaic building

作　　者：任远[1] 王佳[1] 周小平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学电信学院,北京100044

出　　处：《可再生能源》2014年第7期911-915,共5页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2012BAA10B02);北京高等学校青年英才计划(21147514040);产学研联合培养研究生基地项目(cxy2012023)

摘　　要：发电量是光伏项目重要的性能指标。准确预测发电量对于光伏建筑项目的规划、运营以及经济核算极为重要。面向光伏电站设计开发的发电量预测方法及其软件,难以适应光伏建筑发电量预测的复杂性和特殊性,其预测结果与实际值差距较大。文章提出了一种光伏建筑模型预测法,使用该方法预测光伏建筑发电量的结果较为准确,优于现有方法。Power generation output represents a vital index for a photovoltaic project. The accuracy of power generation forecasting plays a significant role in the photovoltaic building（a kind of new building uses PV system as a principal or ancillary source of electrical power） project during the procedure of planning, operation and economic calculation. The methods and software of PV power output forecasting currently aim to exploration of photovoltaic power station, which are hardly suitable for complexity and particularity of power output forecasting of photovoltaic building. What is more, there is a huge gap between the forecasting outcome and actual value. A method of photovoltaic building model is introduced to forecast photovoltaic power output of the photovoltaic building, which is superior to existing method.

关 键 词：光伏建筑一体化 光伏构件 发电量预测 光伏建筑模型 

分 类 号：TK519[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]