我国上市公司股票价格与盈利之间关系的实证研究  

A Case Study of the Relationship between Stock Price and Profit in China's Listed Companies

作　　者：魏兴耘[1] 

机构地区：[1]国泰君安证券公司研究所

出　　处：《管理世界》2002年第5期109-115,125,共8页Journal of Management World

摘　　要：In this paper, the case study of the relationship between the Stock A price and profit of China’ domestic listed companies in between 1996 and 2000 shows that although the stock price of listed companies is, to a certain extent, related to the profits thereof, The reduction in the degree of correlation between the stock price and the profit in the current fiscal year demonstrates that profit prediction does not have much impact upon the stock price movement, and it seems that the market attaches more importance to the change in the short-term profit. As the figure of "perpetual surplus from profit", the profit from the operation of main business lines does not account for much in proportion in the surplus structure of companies, but it also correlates with the stock price to some degree.In a rising capital market as in China, indeed, the connection of the pricing of the listed company’s stock with its intrinsic merit proves, in a measure, the efficiency of the market. However, there are some specific factors that decide the inevitability of the said correlation.Starting from the increase in market efficiency, some suggestions are made in this article about the relative polices.In this paper, the case study of the relationship between the Stock A price and profit of China' domestic listed companies in between 1996 and 2000 shows that although the stock price of listed companies is, to a certain extent, related to the profits thereof, The reduction in the degree of correlation between the stock price and the profit in the current fiscal year demonstrates that profit prediction does not have much impact upon the stock price movement, and it seems that the market attaches more importance to the change in the short-term profit. As the figure of 'perpetual surplus from profit', the profit from the operation of main business lines does not account for much in proportion in the surplus structure of companies, but it also correlates with the stock price to some degree.In a rising capital market as in China, indeed, the connection of the pricing of the listed company's stock with its intrinsic merit proves, in a measure, the efficiency of the market. However, there are some specific factors that decide the inevitability of the said correlation.Starting from the increase in market efficiency, some suggestions are made in this article about the relative polices.

关 键 词：上市公司 股票价格 实证研究 中国 盈利状况 有效市场假说 证券市场 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]