基于灰色系统理论的煤炭需求预测模型  

Coal required quantity forecasting based on grey system theory

作　　者：王立杰[1] 孙继湖[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学,北京校区北京100083

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2002年第3期333-336,共4页Journal of China Coal Society

摘　　要：煤炭需求预测 ,以往采用的方法有类比法、外推法和因果分析法等 ,但已有的预测结果精确度均较低 .运用灰色系统理论 ,建立煤炭需求量的灰色预测模型GM (1,3) .从对我国煤炭需求的预测结果来看 ,对历史实际值拟合的非常好 ,表明了模型具有较高的可靠性 ,并利用该模型预测了我国未来The coal required quantity forecasting the method that before generally uses has analogy method,outside pushes method and cause effect analysis method etc, but the existing forecasting result precisionm is all lower. The paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up forecasting method  GM(1, 3) to coal required quantity. From the forecasting results of the coal required quantity of China to see, it is very good to the history real value was simulated, and having indicated the reliability that the model is all very fine, and uses this model to have predicted the coal required quantity of China in the future ten annuals.

关 键 词：煤炭需求量 灰色系统理论 类比法 外推法 因果分析法 

分 类 号：F407.21[经济管理—产业经济] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]