气候政策研究中的数学模型评述  

Discussion on Methematical Model in Climate Policy Study

作　　者：王灿[1] 陈吉宁[1] 邹骥[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境科学与工程系,北京100084 [2]中国人民大学环境经济与管理系,北京100872

出　　处：《上海环境科学》2002年第7期435-439,454,共6页Shanghai Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：按照成本分析和综合分析2个层次,分别介绍了投入产出模型、可计算一般均衡模型、宏观计量经济模型、工程经济模型、动态能源优化模型、能源系统模拟模型、综合评估模型等不同模型方法的特点及其在气候政策分析中的应用,指出可计算一般均衡模型是应用得最为广泛的方法之一。概括了气候政策模型研究的4个发展趋势,包括加强综合评估模型的应用、扩展成本与效益的内涵、注重不同模型之间的比较、强调不确定性分析。结合中国的研究现状,分析了当前面临的问题,认为国内气候政策模型研究与中国在国际气候变化领域的地位仍不相称,强调要进一步加强研究队伍建设、扩展研究领域、跟踪国际研究前沿问题,以便为国家的气候谈判政策提供更有效的科学依据和决策支持。Under classification of two policy analysis levels of cost estimation and integrated assessment, different modeling methods were discussed, including input-out model, computable general equilibrium model, macro econometric model, engineering economics model, dy-namic energy optimization model, energy system simu-lation model, and integrated assessment model, ete. The characteristics of these models were introduced and their application to climate policy analysis were reviewed. Based on which, it was pointed out that the computable general equilibrium modeling is the most widely useful approach in such field. Then, four de-velopment trends of climate policy modeling were sum-marized, including strengthening the application of in-tegrated assessment models, expanding the connota-tions of cost-benefit analysis, enhancing comparative research on different models, and emphasizing uncer-tainty analysis. Finally, the status quo and problems of China's climate policy modeling were briefly sur-veyed and discussed.

关 键 词：数学模型 评述 气候变化 气候政策研究 综合评估模型 不确定性分析 温室气体 环境气象学 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]