The Analysis of Economic Growth Cycle in Henan Province  

作　　者：LIU Rong-li Management Teaching and Research Department,The Party School of Luoyang City of the CPC,Luoyang 471003,China 

出　　处：《Asian Agricultural Research》2011年第3期11-14,19,共5页亚洲农业研究（英文）

基　　金：Supported by Decision-making and Project for Bidding of Henan Provincial Government(2010A394);Philosophy Social Science Planning Program of Henan Province(2010CJJ024)

摘　　要：According to the data of practical GDP time sequences from 1978 to 2009 provided by Henan Statistical Yearbook of every year,Hodrick-Prescott filter model is established,and it is disintegrated into tendency component(potential yield)and fluctuation component(yield gap).The critical division loci of filter model are 4 wave crest years(1980,1988,1996 and 2007),and 3 trough years(1984,1992 and 2002).Thus since the opening up and reform,the economic growth fluctuation of Henan can be divided into 3 complete cycles and 2 incomplete cycles.Based on the economic situation and background within and without province,we preliminarily conclude the stage-characteristics of all growth cycles and the probable reasons of fluctuation.On the whole,the economic growth cycle of Henan takes on astringency to some extent,and sustainability and stability are reinforced,showing the characteristics of growth-type cycle increasingly.According to the data of practical GDP time sequences from 1978 to 2009 provided by Henan Statistical Yearbook of every year,Hodrick-Prescott filter model is established,and it is disintegrated into tendency component(potential yield)and fluctuation component(yield gap).The critical division loci of filter model are 4 wave crest years(1980,1988,1996 and 2007),and 3 trough years(1984,1992 and 2002).Thus since the opening up and reform,the economic growth fluctuation of Henan can be divided into 3 complete cycles and 2 incomplete cycles.Based on the economic situation and background within and without province,we preliminarily conclude the stage-characteristics of all growth cycles and the probable reasons of fluctuation.On the whole,the economic growth cycle of Henan takes on astringency to some extent,and sustainability and stability are reinforced,showing the characteristics of growth-type cycle increasingly.

关 键 词：ECONOMIC CYCLE Hodrick-Prescott FILTER METHOD Econ 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]