新建居住区用电报装容量计算方法  

Calculation Method of Installation Capacity in New Residential Area

作　　者：陈应盛 

机构地区：[1]广西电网公司南宁供电局,南宁530004

出　　处：《广西电力》2014年第3期56-60,共5页Guangxi Electric Power

摘　　要：为在配电网规划阶段提高地块用电报装容量的快速预测效率和精准度,针对传统方法存在统计工作量大、误差大、计算时序滞后的问题,从传统新建居住区用电报装容量计算方法入手,研究居住区用电报装容量与建筑面积之间的相关性,提出运用回归分析方法计算新建居住区的用电报装容量。通过应用回归方程式计算,用电报装容量精准度的相对误差控制在8.5%以内,实例验证该方法有效。该计算方法是一种快速预测开发地块用电报装容量的方法,可作为供电企业在配网规划阶段进行地块快速负荷预测的工具之一。In order to improve the rapid prediction efficiency and accuracy of block electricity consumption installation capacity in the planning stage of distribution network,and aiming at problems of larger work load,bigger errors and lag of calculation time in traditional method,the relationship between the electricity consumption installation capacity of residential area and the construction area are studied which are started from the traditional calculation method of electricity consumption installation capacity in new residential area,and the method that uses regression analysis method to calculate the electricity consumption installation capacity in new residential area is proposed. By the application of regression equation calculation,the relative error of the accuracy of electricity consumption installation capacity can be controlled within 8.5%. The real case verified that the proposed method is effective. The proposed calculation method is a rapid method to predict the electricity consumption installation capacity of development block,which can be used as one of fast load forecasting tools of blocks in the planning stage of distribution network for power supply enterprises.

关 键 词：回归分析法 新建居住区 报装容量 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]