时间序列分析方法在郑州市降水量预报中的应用  

Application of Time Series Analysis on the Annual Precipitation of Zhengzhou city

作　　者：吕志涛[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河南省地质调查院,郑州450001 [2]河南省地矿局第五地质勘查院,郑州450001

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第4期35-37,56,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：河南平原地区地下水污染调查评价(淮河流域):国土资源大调查项目(1212010634502)

摘　　要：根据1971年-2013年郑州市的降水量资料,采用二次多项式拟合提取降水量的趋势分量,采用谐波分析法提取降水量的周期成分,利用自回归模型求解随机成分,最后将三者叠加,构建了郑州市降水量的预报模型。模型计算结果与实测数据对比可知,应用预报模型对降水量进行预报精度较高。因此利用建立的预报模型对2014年-2016三年的降水量进行了预测,为该区水资源的管理提供依据。Time series analysis method has comprehensive importance and prospects in precipitation forecast.After analyzing precipitation data from 1971to 2009in Zhengzhou city,precipitation forecasting model was constructed by time series analysis method in the paper.When establishing forcasting model,First,the trend component of precipitation is picked up by quadratic polynomial calibration,the periodic component is extracted by spectrum analysis and the stochastic component is simulated by using autoregression model.Finally,the forecasting model is established through superposition of these components,and the method has been used to forecast the next three years precipitation in the Zhengzhou city.In comparison with model calculation results and measured data,the precipitation forecast model accuracy meets the requirements,we can use the model to forecast precipitation in the future,this paper gives the precipitation prediction results of three years of 2014～2016.The results would be helpful for water management in this region.

关 键 词：降水量 时间序列分析 预报 郑州市 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]