基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害预警研究  

Warning of urban extreme rainstorm flood disasters based on cloud model

作　　者：王贺[1,2] 刘高峰[1,3] 王慧敏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学管理科学研究所,江苏南京211100 [3]河海大学企业管理学院,江苏常州213022

出　　处：《水利经济》2014年第4期59-62,74,共4页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71303074);国家社会科学基金(12&ZD214;10CGL069);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120094110018);博士后基金(20100471372);河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2013B18914;2012B09014)

摘　　要：利用两维图论聚类法将城市分为若干个相对独立的区域,根据各个独立区域的实际情况分别创建4个相应降水等级的正态云和统一的极端雨洪灾害风险等级,建立基于云模型的城市极端雨洪灾害预警模型,对相同降雨降到不同地方和不同时间段降雨降到相同地方所引起的雨洪灾害进行动态预警。结果表明,极端暴雨降临时,城西片区、浮梁县城片区和城东片区遭受的灾害风险等级较高,随着时间的推移,其等级逐步由三级升到四级,而电厂片区和吕蒙航空基地片区遭受的灾害风险等级相对较低,最高不超过三级。利用云模型可以对景德镇各个区域各个时间段的灾害等级进行及时、准确的动态预警。By dividing the city into a number of relatively independent areas using the two-dimensional graph theory clustering method and creating four corresponding levels of normal cloud according to the actual situation of each individual region and a unified extreme rainfall flood disaster risk level,a warning model for the urban extreme rainstorm flood disasters is established based on the cloud model. It is employed to conduct dynamic warning of rainstorm flood disasters in Jingdezhen induced by the same rainfall in different areas and the rainfall during different periods in the same area. The results show that when the extreme storm comes,the west and east districts and Fuliang County of Jingdezhen suffer from a higher level risk of loss,and the level rises from grade Ⅲ to Ⅳ with the elapse of time,but Dianchang area and Lümeng Air area suffer from a lower level risk of loss,and the highest level is not larger than grade Ⅲ. The real-time and accurate dynamic warning for disaster levels of various regions in Jingdezhen during different periods are performed by means of the cloud model.

关 键 词：云模型 城市极端雨洪 灾害预警 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]