陕西省1961年～2011年气温和降水变化趋势及突变分析  

Analysis on the change trends and catastrophe of temperature and percipitation in Shannxi Province from 1961 to 2011

作　　者：易浪[1,2] 任志远[2] 崔宇 任云[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]湖南万源评估咨询有限公司,长沙410011 [2]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [3]湖南农业大学资源环境学院,长沙410128

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期592-600,共9页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071057);陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研专项基金(GK201101002)

摘　　要：利用陕西省20个气象站台1961年～2011年的月降水量和月平均气温数据,采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法和Morlet小波分析等研究方法,对陕西省近51年来的气候变化趋势和突变现象进行研究分析.结果显示：近51a来,陕西省年均温呈现出显著上升的趋势,其气候倾向率为0.203℃/10a,在1988年～1989年左右发生了由低温到高温的气温突变;其年均温的增长率呈现出南北高、中间低的趋势,增温幅度表现为南北强、中间弱的特点.陕西省年降水量呈现出波动下降的趋势,其变化速率为-13.491 mm/10a,在1985年年降水量发生了由多到少的突变;年降水量的下降速率呈现出由南往北逐渐增加的趋势.Morlet小波分析表明,陕西省年均温存在24a左右的强显著周期,此外还有9 a和4 a的小尺度变化周期;年降水量存在24 a左右的强显著周期,还有8 a和3 a的小尺度的变化周期.通过以上分析,近51a陕西省总体气候呈现明显的暖干化趋势.meteorological stations in Shannxi Province from 1961 to 2011,this study analyzes the pattern and characteristics of the climate changes in recent 51years in Shannxi Province by using the methods of linear regression,Mann Kendall test,accumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelets analysis.The results show that：1） the annu al average temperature in Shaanxi Province have increased significantly at an increase rate of 0.203℃ /10a in recent 51 year,and in 1988 1989,an abrupt change occurred in the annual average temperature from low to high; 2） both the growth rate and amount of the annual average temperature are higher in the north and south of Shansi Province while lower in the middle; 3） the annual average percipitation in Shaanxi Province have decreased undulately at a decrease rate of 13.491mm/10a in recent 51 years,and in 1985,an abrupt change occurred in the annual average percipitation from more to less; 4） the decline rate of the annual average precipitation have increased gradually from the south to the north of Shanxi Province.Furthermore,the Morlet wavelet analysis shows that：1） the annual average temperature in Shannxi Province has fluctuated at a significant interval of about 24 years accompanied with two small-scale intervals of nine years and four years; 2） the annual average percipitation has fluctuated at a significant interval of about 24 years accompanied with two small-scale intervals of eight years and three years.Therefore,it can be concluded that the climate of Shaanxi Province has presented an obvious trend of becoming warmer and dryer in recent 51 years.

关 键 词：气候变化 突变检测 小波分析 陕西省 

分 类 号：S161.2[农业科学—农业气象学] F426.6[农业科学—农业基础科学]