滑动近似熵在径流序列突变性分析中的应用  

Application of moving approximate entropy to mutation analysis of runoff time series

作　　者：孙东永[1] 黄强[2] 王义民[2] 刘招[1] 张莉[3] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,西安710054 [2]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地,西安710048 [3]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2014年第4期1-6,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然基金重大研究计划(51190093);国家自然科学基金项目(51009008;51009009;51179148;51379014);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201101043)

摘　　要：在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,水文序列发生了变异。利用渭河流域林家村站1960-2000年共41年的日径流序列资料,采用近似熵方法和滑动技术相结合的方法,对其径流时间序列进行突变分析。分析结果表明,在不同的滑动窗口和步长情况下,林家村站径流序列在动力学结构上呈现出明显的四个特点,突变时间发生在1972,1982,1994年;相对于传统的突变分析方法,滑动近似熵在分析非线性时间序列中呈现出分辨率高,抗干扰性强的特点。滑动近似熵能够对变化环境下的高度复杂、非线性径流时间序列的突变有效地进行诊断,可为径流时间序列突变提供一种思路。Under the double impacts of climate changes and human activities, variation in hydrological sequence occurred. This paper analyzes variation in runoff time series with a combining approach of approximate entropy method and sliding method, using the daily runoff series of totally 41 years from 1960 to 2000 at the Linjiacun station of Wei River. The analysis results show that in the cases of different sliding windows and different steps, in dynamical structure this series has four obvious characteristics and abrupt changes occurred in the years 1972, 1982, and 1994. This moving approximate entropy approach has high resolution strong anti-interference characteristics in analysis of nonlinear time series in comparison with the traditional mutation analysis method. It can give an effective diagnosis and a new idea for mutation analysis of highly complex series under changable environment.

关 键 词：工程水文学 非线性突变分析 滑动近似熵 渭河流域 

分 类 号：P333.6[天文地球—水文科学]