昆山市2006～2012年甲状腺癌发病率趋势分析  

An Analysis of the Trend of Incidence of Thyroid Cancer from 2006 to 2012 in Kunshan,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：胡文斌[1] 张婷[1] 秦威[1] 史建国[1] 周杰[1] 仝岚[1] 许寒冰[1] 毛圆圆[2] 

机构地区：[1]昆山市疾病预防控制中心,江苏昆山215300 [2]昆山市第一人民医院,江苏昆山215300

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2014年第7期558-562,共5页China Cancer

摘　　要：[目的]分析昆山市甲状腺癌发病趋势。[方法]甲状腺癌新发病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记报告系统,计算甲状腺癌发病率、年度变化百分比（APC）等指标。[结果]2006～2012年昆山市甲状腺癌中标发病率由2006年的2.76/10万上升至2012年的12.91/10万,年度变化百分比（APC）为29.71%（P〈0.0001）,其中女性甲状腺癌中标发病率由2006年的5.01/10万上升至2012年的21.39/10万,APC为27.39%（P〈0.0001）。灰色模型预测2013～2015年甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势。[结论]昆山市甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势,需加强肿瘤防治工作。[Purpose] To investigate the trend of incidence of thyroid cancer in Kunshan,Jiangsu province. [Methodsl The data of thyroid cancer cases were drawn from the Kunshan Cancer Registry. Incidence of thyroid cancer,annual percent change （APC） were analyzed. [Results] The age- standardized incidence by China （ASR China） of thyroid cancer was 2.76/105 in 2006,which increased to 12.91/105 in 2012 with annual percent （APC） of 29.71%（P〈0.0001）,the ASR China in female was 5.01/105 in 2006 to 21.39/105 in 2012 with APC of 27.39%（P〈0.0001）. Grey forecasting model showed incidence of thyroid cancer with increasing trend. [ Conclusion ] The incidence of thyroid cancer in Kunshan from 2006 to 2012 shows increased trend,and the prevention and control must be strengthed.

关 键 词：甲状腺癌 发病率 灰色预测模型 年度变化百分比 

分 类 号：R736.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]