交通运输业节能减排的潜力测算与策略探讨——以河北省为例  

Potentiality Calculation and Strategy Investigation of Energy-saving and Emission: Reduction in Hebei Province Transportation Industry

作　　者：牛晓耕[1] 牛建高[1] 曹楠楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院经贸学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《石家庄经济学院学报》2014年第3期45-50,共6页Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目"河北省应对气候变化规划思路研究"(2011017);河北省科技厅2013年度项目(13454206D);河北省教育厅项目(SD133007);2014年河北省社科发展研究课题民生调研专项(201401312)

摘　　要：伴随全球经济的快速发展,交通运输业规模不断扩张,已经成为能源消耗、温室气体排放增速最快的行业。文章以高碳特征突出的河北省为研究对象,在刻画交通运输业能源消耗和二氧化碳排放状况的基础上,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,利用Matlab软件对河北省交通运输业的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量进行预测,并在节能减排情景设定下估测节能减排潜力,进而探讨挖掘交通运输业节能减排潜力的路径与对策。With the rapid development of the global economy , the scale of transportation industry is expanding , and it has become the fastest growing industry in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission .This paper takes Hebei Province whose high carbon characteristic is very prominent as the research object , establishes grey predicion GM （ 1 , 1 ） model based on the characterizations of transportation energy consumption and carbon dioxide emis -sions, predicts the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Hebei province transportation industry by u -sing Matlab software , estimates the potential of energy-saving and emission-reduction , then explores the path and countermeasures of energy-saving and emission-reduction potential in transportation industry .

关 键 词：交通运输业 GM (1 1) 节能减排潜力 路径选择 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]