基于蒙特卡罗的城市公交时空可达性模拟研究  

Bus Accessibility Analysis Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：胡继华[1,2] 黄泽[1,2] 程智锋[1,2] 邓俊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学智能交通中心,广州510006 [2]广东省智能交通系统(ITS)重点实验室,广州510006

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2014年第3期6-11,41,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:41271181);2013年广东省安全生产专项基金项目(批准号:2013-102)资助

摘　　要：公交时空可达性是衡量人们利用公交系统出行的难易程度,模拟公交时空可达性,并分析其影响因素,对于提高交通资源利用效率具有重要意义。提出1种基于蒙特卡罗的城市公交可达性的模拟方法,并研究道路拥堵状态和公交发车间隔对公交可达性的影响。利用等时线模型提出公交可达性的度量方法。将公交出行时空过程划分为候车、乘车、靠站、换乘4个阶段,构建每个阶段的时间模型,从而建立公交可达性的蒙特卡罗模拟模型。模型的参数值均由实际的公交GPS数据标定。建立理想的棋盘状公交路网,并进行不同道路状态下和不同公交发车间隔下的模拟,数值模拟结果表明,在弱作用力下时,可达性增长速度提高了近5倍。Bus accessibility evaluates the difficulty of travel over the transit system .However ,the simulation on the influencing factors to bus accessibility has never been adequately studied by far .A simulation method of bus accessibility based on Monte Carlo is proposed ,where two influencing factors ,road congestion and departure interval ,are analyzed . First ,the accessibility measurement using isochrones is set forth .Second ,the travel process is divided into four parts ：waiting for buses ,travel on road ,arriving at the stops and transfer .Time models of each sub-process are built ;therefore the Monte Carlo simulation model is constructed .Finally ,an ideal network on a checkerboard pattern road network is constructed and its simulation is performed under different road congestion conditions and departure intervals .The simu-lation results show greater increase in accessibility under weak force .

关 键 词：城市交通 公交可达性 蒙特卡罗模拟 出行过程 道路状态 发车间隔 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]