人民币区域接受程度:指数构建与影响因子计量——以东盟及中国香港为例  

RMB REGIONAL ACCEPTANCE DEGREE:INDEX ESTABLISHMENTS AND IMPACT FACTORS MEASUREMENT——A Study Based on ASEAN and Hong Kong

作　　者：苏治[1] 李进[1] 方彤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2014年第7期51-63,共13页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAH16F00);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"项目;中央财经大学第二批青年科研创新团队项目

摘　　要：金融危机以来,改革现有的国际货币体系,逐步推进"去美元化"进程,已是国际社会共识。周边化及区域化是人民币国际化进程中的重要阶段,建立人民币区域接受程度监测指标体系,具有重要意义。本文基于对东盟及中国香港人民币使用情况的分析,提出人民币区域接受程度指数的构建框架并进行影响因子的计量分析,实证结果表明:(1)在政策推动及市场需求双重作用下,未来东盟人民币接受程度将持续提升,但短期内受经济政治影响会出现较大反复;(2)受政策推动、存款规模较小以及贬值预期影响,中国香港人民币贸易接受程度的提升快于金融接受程度,提高人民币存款占比有助于提升人民币接受程度;(3)中国香港经济状况对人民币接受程度的影响力要高于内地,反映出货币国际化是市场自发选择的过程;(4)由于货币替代影响双边货币政策效果,中国香港通胀水平、利率以及内地通胀水平会受中国香港人民币接受程度的反向影响。To reform the international monetary system and promote the process of dedollarize gradu ally have become the consensuses of the international community after the financial crisis. Let RMB realize its surrounding and region usage is an important stage in the process of internationalization of the RMB, and it is also of significance to establish the monitoring index system of RMB regional acceptance degree. Based upon the analysis of the RMB usage in ASEAN and Hong Kong, this article proposes the building framework of the RMB regional acceptance degree index, and analyzes impact factors by the econometric tools. The empirical results show that： （1） Fueled by both policypromotion and market demand, the RMB acceptance degree in ASEAN will get a continuous promotion in the future, however, it remains very uncertain because of the economic and political factors in the short term （2） Affected by policypromo tion, smaller deposits and depreciation expectation, RMB trade acceptance degree get a faster promotion than Financial acceptance degree in Hong Kong, and it will be good for improving the RMB acceptance de gree to improve the proportion of RMB deposits; （3） The economic situation of Hong Kong has a higher influence on the RMB acceptance degree than the mainland, which Reflects that the currency international ization is a marketspontaneousselecting process; （4） The currency substitution has an effect on the per formance of bilateral monetary policy, as a result, Hong Kong＇s inflation, interest rates and the level of inflation in mainland will be influenced by the reverse impact of Hong Kong＇s RMB acceptance degree.

关 键 词：人民币 国际化 区域接受程度 货币替代 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]