南京市脑血管疾病死亡人数与气象因子的关系研究  

Association between death toll of cerebrovascular diseases and meteorological factors in Nanjing

作　　者：张莹[1] 王式功[1] 刘丽伟[1] 尚可政[1] 李乃荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2014年第5期385-390,共6页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41105109);环境保护部国家环保公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106034);国家人口健康科学数据共享平台(2005PKA32400);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(lzujbky-2013-m03)

摘　　要：目的探讨脑血管疾病死亡人数与气象因子（包括气象要素及人体舒适度）之间的关系，并建立医学气象预报模型对脑血管疾病死亡人数进行预测。方法采用Spearman方法对南京市2004--2009年气象因子与同期及滞后1～7d的脑梗死和脑出血日死亡人数进行相关性分析，并采用BP神经网络方法建立不同季节脑梗死和脑出血疾病死亡人数的预报模型。结果脑梗死和脑出血月均死亡人数整体上均呈“U”型分布，冬半年（10—3月）死亡人数多，分别为脑梗死4920例，脑出血4445例；夏半年（4—9月）死亡人数少，分别为脑梗死3835例，脑出血3860例。当日气温、舒适度与滞后0—7d的脑血管疾病死亡人数呈负相关（P〈0．05）。利用BP神经网络分季节、分病种建立预报模型，实际值和预报值的误差均较小，脑出血和脑梗死的预报准确度分别达到67．40％和72．08％以上。结论脑血管疾病死亡人数与气象因子关系密切，且存在滞后效应。Objective To investigate the relationship between cerebrovascular disease deaths and meteorological factors which include human comfortable indexes and meteorological elements, and establish meteorological predict models for predicting the cerebrovascular disease deaths. Methods Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the cerebral infarction and cerebral hemorrhage diseases death toll and daily meteorological data during 2004-2009 in Nanjing. Back-Propagation （BP） neutral network model was used to establish seasonally forecast models of cerebral infarction and cerebral hemorrhage diseases death toll, which were based on meteorological factors. Results The average monthly deaths of two diseases showed a ＂U＂ shape, the two diseases deaths showed that in the winter half year＇s （October to March）, there were about 4 920 cases of cerebral infarction and 4 445 cases of cerebral hemorrhage, which were more than those in the summer half year＇ s （April to September）, such as about 3 835 cases of cerebral infarction and 3 860 cases of cerebral hemorrhage. BP neutral network model was used to establish different season forecast models of two diseases, seasonal death of cerebrovascular disease responded to meteorological factors tended to be a hysteresis effect and the best hysteresis time of different diseases in different seasons was different. Predict accuracy of cerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction was over 67.40% and 72.08%, with smaller errors between actual values and simulating values. Conclusion Meteorological factors are closely related to cerebrovascular disease death toll, and there is a lag effect between them.

关 键 词：脑血管疾病 气象因子 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]