津冀沿海地区海平面上升的风险评估研究  

The Risk Assessment Research on the Sea Level Rise of Tianjin and Hebei Coastal Areas

作　　者：李响[1] 段晓峰[1] 刘克修[1] 陈满春[1] 张增健 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第3期108-114,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41106159;41106004;408330746);国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC21B0101);全球变化与海气相互作用专项(GASI-03-01-01-09)

摘　　要：气候变化引起的海平面上升将给沿海地区社会经济发展和生态环境带来严重的影响。津冀沿海地区地势低平极易受到海平面上升的直接影响,该文以津冀沿海地区为例,对海平面上升风险评估方法进行示范应用,评估该地区海平面上升的风险,区划海平面上升风险,并提出风险管理的建议。结果表明,天津滨海新区、河北黄骅市等地面临的海平面上升风险较高,在沿海发展规划和重大工程建设中应充分考虑海平面上升因素。Sea level rise which caused by climate change will bring serious affect to the socio-economic development and ecological environment of coastal areas.The low-lying coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei province are vulnerable to the direct impact of the sea level rise.The coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei are taken as an example to demonstrate the application of the risk assessment methods of the sea level rise,zoning the risk of the sea level rise,and to give the recommendations of the risk management.The results show that,Tianjin Binhai New Area and Huang Hua have high risk of sea level rise,the factor of sea level rise should be fully considered in the coastal development planning and major construction projects.

关 键 词：海平面上升 风险评估 风险区划 

分 类 号：P72[天文地球—海洋科学] X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]