Markov模型在死因顺位分布转移预测中的应用  

Application of Markov Model in Forecasting the Distribution of Rank Order for Death Causes

作　　者：陈翔[1] 李丽星[1] 洪嘉铭[1] 周怡[2] 

机构地区：[1]肇庆市第一人民医院,肇庆市526000 [2]广东药学院信息工程系,广州市510006

出　　处：《中国卫生信息管理杂志》2014年第3期291-295,共5页Chinese Journal of Health Informatics and Management

摘　　要：目的以肇庆市第一人民医院2003～2006年住院病例死因顺位转移情况为依据，预测2007～2012年该院住院病例死因顺位分布转移情况，探讨2005年实施《全国高血压社区规范化管理》项目以来肇庆地区高血压防治取得的效果。方法应用Markov状态转移矩阵预测高血压病防控对死因顺位分布的影响。结果Markov模型预测该院住院患者死因顺位分布转移与实际情况吻合较好，前三位主要死因分别从2003～2004年的肿瘤、神经系统和循环系统疾病，变为2005年开始的肿瘤、循环系统和神经系统疾病，神经系统脑意外死亡减少，到2012年且各病种的住院病例平均死亡年龄增长了4.1岁。结论从该院十年来死因顺位变化看，实施《全国高血压社区规范化管理》在广东肇庆地区可能有较为明显的效果，Markov模型用于预测各种疾病状态转移趋势显示出较好的优势。Objective To forecast the distribution of hospital rank order for death causes from 2007 to 2012, which is based on the transition condition of death cause from 2003 to 2006 in the first People’s hospital of Zhaoqing city; investigate the effect of hypertension preventing and controlling in Zhaoqing district since 2005 to implement the standardized management of hypertension based on community. Methods Using Markov state transition matrix to forecast the influence of hypertension preventing and controlling for rank order for death causes distribution. Results The condition of distribution and transition of rank order for death causes with Markov model forecasting was in good accordance with the true condition. The first three causes of death were tumor, nervous system disease and circulatory disease from 2003 to 2004; then there were tumor, circulatory disease and nervous system disease since 2005. The average death age of each disease increased 4.1 years old until 2012. Conclusion An observation at the change of rank order for death causes since the latest ten years, the effect of hypertension preventing＆nbsp;and controlling is obvious after implementing the standardized management of hypertension based on community. Markov model has shown its advantages to forecast the transfer tendency of various disease states.

关 键 词：MARKOV模型 死因顺位 疾病状态转移 

分 类 号：R-37[医药卫生] R195.2