中国制造业生产的上下游传导关系分析——基于制造业PMI的研究  

Analysis of the Transmission Relationship between Upstream and Downstream in Production of China's Manufacturing Industry ——Based on the Research of Manufacturing PMI

作　　者：齐天翔[1] 石智超[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学金融学院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2014年第3期87-95,共9页Research on Economics and Management

摘　　要：本文选取中国制造业上下游指标,对其生产的上下游传导关系进行了实证研究。首先从理论上定性分析了上下游指标之间的传导关系,然后利用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验实证考察了这些指标之间的领先滞后关系,并对实证结果进行了经济解释。结果表明,制造业PMI可以预测上游原材料采购量和发电量,而上游原材料的购进价格可以预测制造业PMI,说明上游原材料的供给从总体上受到制造业生产需求拉动;但在下游指标中只有新出口订单可以预测制造业PMI,制造业PMI可以预测商品房销售面积,说明制造业生产受下游需求拉动不明显。This article selected China＇s manufacturing industry＇s upstream and downstream indexes,and made an empirical research of the transmission relationship between upstream and downstream in production of China＇s manufacturing industry. It analyzed the transmission relationship among all the indexes qualitatively and theoretically in the first place, then empirically studied the lead-lag relationship between these indexes adopting ,格兰杰（Granger） causality test,presenting economic explanation for the empirical results. The empirical results find that among upstream indexes,manufacturing PMI can forecast the ＂quantity＂ of raw materials procurement and power demand ;the ＂price＂ of raw materials can predict manufacturing PMI. This suggests upstream energy and raw material supply is drove by manufacturing industry＇s demand. But among downstream indexes, only can new export orders forecast manufacturing PMI; manufacturing PMI can predict floor space of commercial housing sold. This suggests that it is not obvious that manufacturing industry＇s production is drove by the downstream demand.

关 键 词：中国制造业 上下游传导关系 制造业 PMI 

分 类 号：F407[经济管理—产业经济]