IPCC AR5全球模式对华北地区未来气候的预估  

Climate Change Projection over North China Simulated by the IPCC AR5 Simulations

作　　者：翟薇[1] 石英[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局工程咨询中心,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第23期7928-7930,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955904);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41375104)

摘　　要：基于CMIP5中的19个全球海气耦合模式结果,在对模式模拟能力进行检验的基础上,分析了华北地区未来气候变化,结果表明,全球模式对华北地区气候有一定的模拟能力,对气温空间分布模拟效果较好,对降水的模拟效果与气温相比相对较差。多模式集合平均值能较好地给出华北区域当代气候变化特征,较大多数单个模式模拟效果好,与观测的空间相关系数有所提高,尤其是降水;对未来集合预估的结果表明,21世纪末期不同排放情景下,华北地区年、冬季和夏季气温均将升高,降水也以增加为主,且RCP8.5情景下升温和降水增加幅度较RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景更为显著。Based on the output data of 19 AOGCMs participated in CMIPS, the climate change projection over North China was analyzed. The results showed that the AOGCMs are able to reproduce the distribution of the observed precipitation in North China, and the performance of temperature shows better compared to precipitation. The multi-model ensemble can also reproduce the climate well, and is better than most single models. The value of the spatial correlation coefficient between multi-model ensemble mean and observation is higher compared to single model, especially for precipitatioi1. In the end of the 21st century, under different emission scenarios, the annual mean temperature, the mean temperature in winter and summer will increase, and that of precipitation will mainly on increase, with the highest value under RCPS. 5 scenar- io both for temperature and precipitation.

关 键 词：气候变化 CMIP5 多模式集合 华北地区 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]