区域性碳强度收敛性分析及对策研究  

Regional Carbon Intensity Convergence Analysis and Countermeasure Research

作　　者：唐建荣 陈淑艳 

机构地区：[1]江南大学,无锡214122

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2014年第8期99-109,共11页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"小样本非等距灰色预测模型建模及其应用研究"(批准号:71301061);国家社会科学基金"实物期权条件下的公共资源交易问题研究"(批准号:08BYJ060);教育部人文社科基金"区域性碳交易平台的系统研究"(批准号:11YJAZH084)共同资助

摘　　要：碳排放的区域差异是当前碳减实践中需要着重考虑的问题。为考察碳减排实践效果,论文对全国及各区域碳强度的收敛性进行系统分析,并进一步研究其对碳减排的影响,以考察节能政策的干预效果,找出碳排放驱动因素,为低碳化发展提供政策建议。研究结果表明:全国碳强度只存在条件β收敛,说明区域间碳强度差异导致各区域在节能政策理解和减排行动方面未达成共识,总体碳减进程受阻;各区域碳强度的收敛状态因区域而异:东北、黄河中游和长江中游地区同时存在σ收敛、绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,西南地区存在σ收敛和绝对β收敛,西北和北部沿海地区只存在条件β收敛,说明区域内部的碳强度差异或在碳减共识下或在政策干预下或在企业减碳行动下会逐步消除并趋向于各自的稳态水平,有利于各区域有条不紊地开展碳减排工作;东部和南部沿海地区3种收敛均不存在,说明两个区域内部的碳强度差异难以消除,节能减排依然任重道远。Regional difference d carbon emissions is the issue that needs to be considered in the current carbon reduction practices. To investigate the effects of regional carbon emissions policy, the paper analyzes the national and regional convergence of carbon intensity and the influence that has on the reduction of carbon emissions. The results show that there is only a conditional beta convergence in national carbon emissions intensity, which shows that because d the differences among regional carbon intensity, the consensus on the understanding of energy saving policy and the action to reduce the emission has not reached; the regional convert-ice d carbon emissions intensity varies by region： the no.east region, the Yellow River region and the Yangtze River region have sigma convergence, absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence of carbon intensity, the southwest region has sigma convergence and absolute beta convergence of carbon intensity, the northwest region and the northem coastal region only have conditlonal beta convergence of carbon intensity, indicating that the differences among regional carbon intensity will tend to move to their own steady - state level under the consensus of carbon emissions reduction or under the effective policy intervention; the eastern and sourish coastal region have none of three convergence of carbon intensity, carbon intensity differences within the two regions are difficult to eliminate, energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction is still a long way to go.

关 键 词：碳减排 碳强度 收敛性 八大区域 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]