中国入境旅游的空间关联特征及其影响因素探析——基于地理加权回归的视角  

An Exploratory Analysis on the Spatial Correlation Characteristics and Influential Factors of Inbound Tourism in China: A Geographical Weighted Regression Perspective

作　　者：方远平[1] 谢蔓[2] 毕斗斗[3] 肖佑兴[4] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学旅游管理学院,广东广州510631 [2]中山大学新华学院,广东广州510520 [3]华南理工大学经贸学院,广东广州510006 [4]广州大学中法旅游学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《旅游科学》2014年第3期22-35,共14页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"制度视角下的文化旅游地社会变迁研究"(12CJY090);广东省自然科学基金项目"信息技术对广东省KIBS创新影响的产业-空间效应与机理研究"(S2013010013695);广东省哲学社科十二五规划项目"信息技术对知识密集型服务业创新影响的空间效应与动力机制研究"(GD13CYJ07);2011年度华南理工大学中央高校业务费项目"中国大城市环城游憩带的构建--基于城市居民假日出游行为时空结构的视角"(D211203w)

摘　　要：国内外关于入境旅游的研究已有丰富积累,但现有关于我国入境旅游影响因素的研究均较少考虑地理邻近与空间关联性、空间非平稳性等特征。本文基于修正的旅游引力模型,首次运用地理加权回归模型,探析经济外向度、旅游资源和地理距离对我国31个省域入境旅游影响的空间差异。研究表明:入境游客在空间上具有正相关性(空间依赖性)和集聚特征;经济外向度和旅游资源对入境游客数量都有积极的影响,旅游资源的促进作用相对较大,而地理距离的增加对入境游客数量有负向的影响。并且,各影响因素的系数存在空间非平稳性,经济外向度和地理距离估计系数形成了以东北地区为核心,不断向西南方向扩散的圈层;相反的是,旅游资源对入境旅游的作用程度形成了由西南向东北地区逐渐递减的格局。研究也发现,邻近地区的入境游客数量对本地区具有正向影响,境外游客从目的地向周边地区扩散,省区之间存在空间溢出效应。Although rich studies of inbound tourism have been done both in China and abroad, few studies concerned proximity and spatial spill-over as the influential factors. Based on the modified tourism gravity model, this paper initiates to apply geographical weighted regression to analyze the impacts of the openness of economy, tourism resources, as well as geographical distance on the inbound tourism of 31 provinces and areas in China. The results are：First, the distribution of inbound tourists shows positive correlation effect and agglomeration in provincial space in China; Second, both the openness of economy and tourism resources have positive impact on inbound tourism while the later has comparatively greater promotion effect, and the increase of geographical distance has negative effect on inbound tourism. Third, spatially, the coefficients of each factor appear instable, and the spatial distribution of the estimate coefficient of the economic openness and geographical distance in provincial space shows a progressive decrease from northeast, the core, to the southwest; Fourth, the estimated coefficient of tourism resources shows a gradual decrease from southwest areas, the core, to the northeast areas; Fifth, inbound tourists of nearby regions have positive influence on the development of local inbound tourists, while overseas tourists have a diffusing effect spreading from the destination to surrounding provincial regions.

关 键 词：入境旅游 影响因素 地理加权回归 空间差异 空间计量 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]