金融状况指数显示：经济低位增长，物价相对平稳  

Financial conditions index indicating slow economic growth with moderate inflationary pressure

作　　者：郑桂环[1] 王宇[2] 贾方龙[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行调查统计司 [2]中国人民银行西安分行调查统计处 [3]中国人民银行连云港中心支行

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2014年第5期36-38,共3页China Money

摘　　要：金融状况指数（FCI）是基于货币价格和资产价格等变量编制的综合性指标，以弥补货币供应量、利率等传统指标的不足。文章选取货币供应量、利率、汇率、股票指数和房地产价格等指标，采用主成分分析方法构建FCI。结果显示，从FCI本身的走势看，目前处在下行态势，低于近十年的平均值；从其领先经济指标的性质判断，未来经济增长将低位平稳运行，物价上行压力不大。The financial conditions index （FCI） is a consolidated index compiled using variables such as money prices and asset prices to make up the deficiency in traditional indicators such as money supply and interest rate. The article establishes the FCI using principal component analysis with reference to money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, stock index and property price. The result shows that FCI is declining and below its 10-year average, and suggests that the future economic growth rate will be stable at a low level without much inflation pressure.

关 键 词：金融状况指数 主成分分析法 经济预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]