基于能源足迹的环渤海可持续发展评价  

Evaluation on Sustainable Development of the Bohai Rim Based on Energy Ecological Footprint Method

作　　者：檀菲菲[1] 陆兆华[1,2] 张萌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)化学与环境工程学院恢复生态研究所,北京100083 [2]滨州学院山东省黄河三角洲生态环境重点实验室,山东滨州256603

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2014年第11期2508-2513,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2011BAC02B01-05);国家自然科学基金项目(71273260/G0312)

摘　　要：采用能源消费数据及社会经济相关资料,依据能源足迹的碳吸收计量模型、能源足迹强度及生态压力等概念分析环渤海区域可持续性,通过STIRPAT模型揭示驱动因子的边际效应,并尝试结合人类发展指数评价区域可持续发展状况。结果表明,区域人均能源足迹从2001年0.625 8 hm2上升至2010年1.405 4 hm2,年均增幅为13.84%,且2010年能源足迹赤字为2001年的2.44倍,发展严重不可持续;区域内煤类足迹占总能源足迹的比例平均为78.86%,而能源足迹强度从2001年的0.5505hm2/万元降至2010年的0.338 6 hm2/万元,年均下降4.28%;能源生态压力指数从2001年的5.939 7增至2010年的13.619 4,生态系统严重不安全;能源足迹与人均GDP和能源足迹强度呈正相关,与人口数量呈负相关,边际弹性系数分别为4.201467、0.821476和-0.000 414;区域HDI及健康指数、教育指数和GDP指数均高于全国平均值,社会经济发展较好。该研究可为环渤海经济圈可持续发展研究奠定基础,也对类似研究有借鉴意义。With the gradual expansion o f economic scale in the Bohai Rim,energy and the consequent environmental problems have become the major factors restricting its further development.The sustainability of the Bohai Rim in the time series was analyzed based on the model of carbon absorption,energy footprint intensify and ecological pressure.The marginal contribution of driving factors in energy footprint was studied by STIRPAT model,with the state of sustainable development evaluated by attempting to integrate with human development index,according to the statistical data of energy consumption and social economy materials.The results showed that energy footprint per capita in the Bohai Rim was increased from 0.625 8hm^2to 1.405 4 hm^2within the past ten years,growing at 12.46% annually and appearing rising trend.In terms of the value,Tianjin and Hebei were located in front of others.The value of energy deficit in 2010 was 2.44 times more than that in2001,demonstrating unsustainable development.The annual average percentage of coal accounting for energy consumption in the whole region was 78.86%.In the period studied,energy footprint intensify in the Bohai Rim was decreased from 0.550 5hm^2/104yuan to 0.338 6 hm^2/104yuan at 4.23% annually and the ecological pressure index was increased to 13.619 4 from5.939 7,manifesting seriously unsafe ecosystem.The energy footprint was positively correlated with GDP per capita,energy footprint intensity,and negatively correlated with population.The corresponding coefficients of effects on energy footprint were4.201 467,0.821 476 and-0.000 41,respectively.The value of HDI and health,education and GDP index were higher than that of the corresponding average national value,indicating a certain degree development of society and economy.The results would lay the foundation for studying sustainable development of the Bohai Rim,and be valuable for similar studies as well.

关 键 词：环渤海 能源足迹 人类发展指数 可持续发展 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X171