浙江茶树春霜冻发生规律及其与太平洋海温的遥相关分析  

Teleconnection Analysis Between Spring Frost Damage on Tea in Zhejiang Province and Sea Surface Temperature in Pacific

作　　者：吴杨[1] 金志凤[2,3] 叶建刚 杨再强 胡波 李仁忠[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象服务中心,杭州310017 [2]江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [3]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [4]浙江省绍兴县气象局,绍兴312000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2014年第4期434-439,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306037);江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金(JKLAM201208);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013M20)

摘　　要：利用浙江省68个气象站1971-2013年的最低气温观测资料,定义茶树早春可能受冻害的气象指标,应用Kriging空间分析法和气候统计方法对43a来霜冻的时空分布特征和演变趋势进行分析;并结合同期太平洋海温资料,采用相关分析和奇异值分析方法(SVD),研究茶树春霜冻发生与太平洋海温的遥相关关系。结果表明,浙江省茶树春霜冻日南少北多,由东南向西北逐渐增加,霜冻总天数和强度影响最严重的区域均出现在浙北,尤以浙西北山区严重,而浙南地区和金衢盆地较轻;43a来霜冻总发生日数基本呈震荡变化,但仍具有明显的阶段性特点,20世纪90年代中期以前霜冻日数普遍较多,90年代后期开始霜冻发生天数较少,但近年又呈现增加的趋势;浙江省茶树春霜冻与前一年南太平洋关键区(130°-170°W,18°-28°S)的8-9月海温呈显著负相关关系,即前一年8-9月该区海温异常偏高(低),则当年霜冻偏少(多),因此,该关键区海温场的异常变化是预测霜冻异常的一个重要前兆信号,研究结果可为浙江省茶树春霜冻的预报提供参考。Based on the daily minimum temperature of 68 stations in Zhejiang during 1971-2013,the spring frost damage index defined.The spatial and temporal evolution of spring frost damage was analyzed by using Kriging interpolation and statistical methods.The teleconnection between the spring frost damage days and Pacific SST （sea surface temperature） during the same period was also studied by correlation analysis and SVD.The results showed that the northern part of Zhejiang was affected more seriously by the spring frost damage,especially the north-west of Zhejiang,the southern Zhejiang and Jinhua-Quzhou basin were the less influenced regions.The spring frost damage occurred frequently before mid-1990s,and declined since late-1990s.The spring frost damage index was significantly connected with the Southern Pacific SST over （130°-170°W,18°-28°S） in the former year,which could be a clue to the spring frost damage forecast in Zhejiang.

关 键 词：早春霜冻 奇异值分析方法(SVD) 茶叶 冻害指标 

分 类 号：S571.1[农业科学—茶叶生产加工] S425[农业科学—作物学]