全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响Ⅹ.气候变化对东北三省春玉米气候适宜性的影响  

The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅹ. The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Climatic Suitability of Spring Maize in the Three Provinces of Northeast China

作　　者：赵锦[1] 杨晓光[1] 刘志娟[1] 吕硕[1] 王静[1,2] 陈阜 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]宁夏气象科学研究所,银川750002 [3]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2014年第16期3143-3156,共14页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)(2010CB951502);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2012BAD20B04)

摘　　要：【目的】研究气候变化背景下中国东北三省春玉米气候适宜性的变化特征,为东北地区春玉米种植的合理布局提供科学依据。【方法】本文以1981年为时间节点,把1961—2010年分为两个时间段,基于东北三省74个气象站点1961—2010年的观测资料,根据农业气象学指标,在分析1981—2010年较1961—1980年东北三省春玉米可能种植北界变化的基础上,利用APSIM-Maize模型模拟春玉米可能种植区域内各气象站点逐年的雨养产量,结合统计学方法,分析春玉米雨养产量高产性和稳产性的变化特征,并综合得到气候变化背景下中国东北三省春玉米的气候适宜区分布的变化特征。【结果】(1)与1961—1980年相比,1981—2010年春玉米的可能种植北界向北移动了158.3—285.8 km,春玉米可能种植面积增加了3.87×104 km2,占东北三省土地面积的4.91%。(2)1981—2010年,东北三省春玉米雨养产量的最高产区、高产区和次高产区面积占可能种植面积比例由81.14%增加为86.66%,其中最高产区和高产区面积比例由36.61%减少为34.82%,而次高产区则由44.53%增加到51.85%,低产区面积占研究区域面积的比例由18.86%减少为13.34%。研究区域内雨养产量的单产减少40 kg·hm-2,但由于春玉米可能种植区域总面积的扩大,特别是高产区和次高产区面积的增加,研究区域内雨养产量的总产增加了7.0%。(3)东北三省春玉米雨养产量的最稳产区、稳产区和次稳产区面积占可能种植面积的比例由80.20%增加为89.28%,且最稳产区和稳产区面积比例由40.97%增加为49.97%,而低稳产区面积占研究区域面积的比例由19.80%减少为10.72%。(4)东北三省春玉米气候适宜区和次适宜区面积占可能种植面积的比例由61.09%增加为83.00%,但最适宜区面积比例由18.83%减少为6.67%,可种植区面积占研究区域面积的比例由20.08%减少为10.33%。研究区域内春玉米可稳定获得的雨养产量�【Objective】The variabilities of distribution patterns of spring maize climatic suitability in the three provinces of Northeast China under climate change were studied, and the results will provide a scientific basis for spring maize cropping distribution in the region. 【Method】In this research, the year 1981 was taken as a time node and divided the period 1961-2010 into two sub-periods. The historical climate data from 74 meteorological stations in these three provinces from 1961 to 2010 were used. According to the agro-meteorological indices, the possible northern limit changes of spring maize in Northeast China were analyzed. The rain-fed yields in each station in the potential cropping region of spring maize were assessed by APSIM-Maize model year by year. On the basis of statistical methods, the variabilities of the rain-fed yield level and stablity zones were investigated. In summary, the variability of distribution patterns of spring maize climatic suitability were studied. 【Result】In the period from 1981 to 2010, the possible northern limit of spring maize moved with a northwestward shift of 158.3-285.8 km, and the possible planting area increased by 3.87×104 km2（4.91% of the whole land area in Northeast China） than during the period from 1961 to 1980. During the period 1981-2010, the percentage of the very high, high and moderately high rain-fed yield zones of spring maize in the possible planting area increased from 81.14% to 86.66%, but the percentage of the very high, high zones decreased from 36.61% to 34.82% and the moderately high zone increased from 44.53% to 51.85%. Meanwhile, the percentage of the marginally high zone decreased from 18.86% to 13.34%. Generally, the rain-fed yield per unit area reduced by 40 kg·hm-2 in the research area. However, the total rain-fed yield increased by 7.0% with possible planting area increase, especially the high and moderately high rain-fed yield zones. The percentage of the very stable, stable and moderately stable rain-fed yield zones of spring

关 键 词：气候变化 东北三省 春玉米 气候适宜性 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]