周期与季节性因素影响下的短生命周期产品预测优化模型  

The Forecast Optimization Model of the Short Life Cycle Products Under the Influence of Cyclical and Seasonal Factors

作　　者：周凯歌[1] 徐琪[1] 伍大清[1] 孙莉[1] 王恒[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第15期218-224,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71172174);教育部博士点基金(20110075110003);东华大学研究生学位论文创新资助项目(CUSF-DH-D-2013037);湖南省教育厅基金(13C818);湖南衡阳科技局基金(2013KG63)

摘　　要：短生命周期产品因为需求的随机性和产品价值的瞬间变化性,对预测准确性提出了更高的要求.然而许多企业在使用多种预测模型后发现其预测准确率并没有得到显著提升.以短生命周期产品需求特点为背景,在需求预测影响的BASS模型基础上,建立受生命周期和季节性因素影响的需求预测优化模型,最后通过一个产品的实例证实了验证了模型的合理性.The forecasting accuracy of the Short life cycle products is proposed for higher requirements because of the random of the demand forecasts and instantaneous changes of product value. However, the forecasting accuracy rate has not been significantly improved under using a variety of predictive models in many companies. Based on the demand fore- casting effects of the BASS model, the demand forecasting optimization model is established by the life cycle and seasonal factors with the backgrounds of the demand characteristics to short life cycle products. Finally, the paper validates the rationality of the model through an example of the product.

关 键 词：周期性 季节性 需求预测模型优化 

分 类 号：F273.2[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]