区域农业水资源供需平衡分析  

Analysis of Supply-demand Balance of Regional Agricultural Water Resources

作　　者：刘鑫[1] 王素芬[1] 康健[1] 孙昊阳 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学中国农业水问题研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2014年第4期320-324,共5页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国际科技合作专项资助项目(2013DFG70990);公益性行业(农业)项目(201203077)

摘　　要：为了高效利用区域农业水资源,根据农业供需水影响因子,建立了区域农业水资源供需预测的BP神经网络模型,并利用所建立的BP模型预测海河流域近期(2020年)和中期(2030年)农业供需水量。结果表明,建立的预测模型误差在允许范围内,可用于区域农业供需水的预测。海河流域近中期农业缺水率呈递减趋势,2020年和2030年缺水率分别为20.2%和19.6%。In order to use regional agricultural water resources efficiently, the BP prediction model of agricultural water resources was established based on the influencing factors of supply and demand of agricultural water resources, and the model was also applied to Haihe River basin to predict the demand and supply of agricultural water resources in 2020 and 2030. The results showed that the errors of BP prediction model were within permission and the model could be used to predict regional agricultural water resources. The agricultural water deficient ratio of Haihe River basin would decline in the future, with the water deficient ratio of 20.2% and 19.6% in 2020 and 2030, respectively.

关 键 词：农业水资源 供需平衡 预测 BP模型 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]