基于行人和自行车交通安全的城市道路限速值研究  

Study on Urban Road Speed Limit for Pedestrian and Bicyclist Traffic Safety

作　　者：聂进[1,2] 吴京梅[3] 吴玲涛[3] 任立海[1] 杨济匡[1,4] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学汽车车身先进设计制造国家重点实验室,湖南长沙410082 [2]娄底职业技术学院中德诺浩汽车学院,湖南娄底417000 [3]交通运输部公路科学研究院,北京100088 [4]查尔摩斯理工大学应用力学系,西约特兰哥德堡41296

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2014年第7期91-97,共7页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划("八六三"计划)项目(2006AA110101);国家自然科学基金项目(51205119);交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目(900215413)

摘　　要：为了确定中国城市交通环境下道路限速值对行人与自行车骑车人伤亡风险的影响,从城市深入交通事故调查数据库(IVAC)中选出能合理估算车辆碰撞速度且具有详细伤情记录的371例车辆-行人事故和67例车辆-自行车事故原始样本,利用逻辑回归分析方法建立了行人和自行车骑车人伤亡风险模型,定量分析行人与自行车骑车人在城市道路环境下的伤亡风险。设定了4种车辆行驶速度修正方案,基于伤亡风险分析,重新计算样本行人和自行车骑车人的伤亡人数。结果表明:行人和自行车骑车人在车辆碰撞速度70km·h-1时的死亡风险约为50km·h-1时的3倍,为30km·h-1时的13倍;降低车辆行驶速度可以明显降低行人和自行车骑车人伤亡风险;研究结果可为确定城市道路车辆限速值提供依据,对乡村道路限速值的确定也具有一定的参考价值。In order to determine the influence of road speed limit on the risk of pedestrian and bicyclist casualties in urban public transportation in China, 371 pedestrian cases and 67 bicyclist cases with estimated vehicle impact speed and detailed injury information were selected from IVAC database which had been developed via an in, depth investigation of vehicle traffic accidents. The risk models of pedestrians and bicyclists in urban traffic environment were developed by using logistic regression method and the risks of pedestrian and bicyclist casualties were quantitatively analyzed. Four correction schemes of vehicle travel speed were defined and the number of pedestrian and bicyclist casualties was estimated again based on the risk models. The results show that the fatality risks at 70 km · h^-1 are about 3 times of that at 50 km · h^-1 and 13 times of that at 30 km · h^-1 for both pedestrians and bicyclists. The reduction of vehicle travel speed can obviously decrease the casualty risks of both pedestrians and bicyclists. These findings can provide a foundation for setting a more reasonable speed limit for urban roads. Meanwhile, they can also provide a reference for setting speed limit for rural roads.

关 键 词：交通工程 道路限速 逻辑回归 行人 自行车骑车人 伤亡风险 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]