洞庭湖区两型社会发展水平时空分异  

The Temporal and Spatial Differences of Developmental Level of Resource Conserving and Environment-Friendly Society in Dongting Lake Region

作　　者：熊建新[1] 陈端吕[1] 彭保发[1] 董明辉[1] 王亚力[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南文理学院资源环境与旅游学院,中国湖南常德415000

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第8期156-161,共6页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY025);湖南省环洞庭湖区域发展研究基地;湖南省重点建设学科;湖南省高校科技创新团队支持计划资助项目

摘　　要：从经济增长、社会进步、资源利用和环境质量4个方面构建洞庭湖区两型社会发展水平评价指标体系,利用评价模型和人工神经网络模型对两型社会发展水平进行时空变化分析和预测。结果表明:1洞庭湖区2005—2012年经济发展度和社会协调度均呈上升态势,年均增幅分别达2.46%、4.46%;环境可持续度则呈波动性下降态势,年均降幅达0.74%。两型社会发展水平整体上升的同时,内部经济、社会和环境的协调性较差。2从空间上来看,17个县域经济发展度和社会协调度的变化幅度均呈正向变化,环境可持续度处于负向变化,岳阳市区、常德市区和益阳市区3个县域的经济发展度和社会协调度要比其它14个县域的高,环境可持续度则下降幅度最为明显。2个时段的对比,可以看出17个县域两型社会发展水平均处于上升态势,县域差异性变化明显。3预测显示2015年洞庭湖区17个县域两型社会发展水平指数大体上处于中等状态,并且呈现差异性上升,既表明湖区两型社会建设走上了良性发展道路,建设效果日趋明显,又说明湖区人口、资源、环境与发展之间的矛盾仍然没有得以稳妥解决,并且将成为制约湖区两型社会可持续发展的障碍因素。研究证明利用BP神经网络模型进行两型社会发展水平时空预测切实可行可靠,模型运行结果可以为区域可持续发展提供科学依据。Using evaluation model and artificial neural network model, the temporal and spatial differences of developmental level of RES were analyzed and forecasted. The results indicate that： （1） For the lake region as a whole, economic development degree and social coordination degree showed an upward trend with an average annual growth rate of 2.46 % and 4.46% from 2005 to 2012; while environmental sustainability degree declined fluctuantly with an average annual decrease of 0.74%. The developmental level of RES was increasing as a whole, while its internal coordination of economy, society and environment was poor at the same time. （2） As to spatial distribution, the rangeability of economic development degree and social coordination degree were a tendency of positive change in the 17 counties of Dongting Lake area, the rangeability of environmental sustainability degree showed a negative change; in the urban areas of Yueyang, Changde and Yiyang development and harmonization degrees were higher than the other 14 counties, while environmental sustainability degree decreased most significantly. Compared 2005 with 2012, it showed that the developmental level of RES of 17 counties had a rising tendency, and the difference between counties changed obviously. （3） The prediction consequence indicates that developmental level of RES of 17 counties in 2015 will be medium level, and increase constantly in different change. It not only reflects the construction of RES in Dongting Lake area is healthy and fruitful, but also indicates that the contradiction between population, resources, environment and development is still not solved thoroughly, it will become the bstacle factor for sustainable development of RES. It is also proved that the BP neural network model can be used to forecast developmental level of RES, the application of the model is reliable and fessible, the forecasting results can provide a scientific basis for sustainable development.

关 键 词：两型社会 可持续发展 人工神经网络 时空分异 洞庭湖区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]