基于灰色理论的城市日用水量缺失值估计方法  

A Grey Theory-based Missing Value Estimation Method for Urban Daily Water Consumption

作　　者：陈磊[1] 陈保[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学建工学院,杭州310014

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第8期49-51,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(50908165);浙江省重点科技创新团队(2010R50037);浙江工业大学校基金重点项目(20100245)

摘　　要：针对传统日用水量数据补缺法存在主观性较强的不足,提出了缺失值的灰色组合插值法。利用自相关系数法分析日用水量序列,确定与缺失值相关性较大的前和后日用水量序列;基于灰色理论,根据前后序列,分别对缺失值进行后插和前插预测;优化组合前后插值,获得缺失值的组合预测值。实例分析结果表明,与传统的平均值法相比,的计算方法具有更高的预测精度。As the missing value in daily water consumption series is generally determined by subjective judgment, a combined interpo- lation method based on grey theory is proposed. An autocorretation method is used to analyze the daily water consumption series to determine the series related to the missing value. With the daily water consumption series before and after the missing value, grey theory is applied to obtain backward and forward interpolation estimation. Two values are optimally combined to achieve the estima- tion of missing value. Case study shows that the proposed method has a higher prediction performance than the average value method.

关 键 词：灰色理论 日用水量 缺失值 组合插值 

分 类 号：TU991.33[建筑科学—市政工程]