交通流量VNNTF神经网络模型多步预测研究  

Research on the Multi-step Prediction of Volterra Neural Network for Traffic Flow

作　　者：殷礼胜[1] 何怡刚[1] 董学平[1] 鲁照权[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《自动化学报》2014年第9期2066-2072,共7页Acta Automatica Sinica

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金(50925727);教育部科学技术研究重大项目(313018);安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目(KJ2012A219);中国博士后科学基金(2013M541823)资助~~

摘　　要：研究了VNNTF神经网络(Volterra neural network traffic flow model,VNNTF)交通流量混沌时间序列多步预测问题.通过分析比较交通流量混沌时间序列相空间重构的嵌入维数和Volterra离散模型之间的关系,给出了确定交通流量Volterra级数模型截断阶数和截断项数的方法,并在此基础上建立了VNNTF神经网络交通流量时间序列模型;设计了交通流量Volterra神经网络的快速学习算法;最后,利用交通流量混沌时间序列对VNNTF网络模型,Volterra预测滤波器和BP网络进行了多步预测实验,比较了多步预测结果的仿真图、绝对误差的柱状图以及归一化后的方均根;实验结果表明VNNTF神经网络的多步预测性能明显优于Volterra预测滤波器和BP神经网络.This paper studies multi-step prediction of traffic flow chaotic time series based on Volterra neural network traffic flow model （VNNTF）. Firstly, by analyzing the relationship between the embedding dimension of phase space reconstruction of traffic flow chaotic time series and Volterra discrete model, we give the method to determine the truncation order and items of Volterra series. Secondly, based on the first step, we build the VNNTF neural networks model of chaos time series and design the fast learning algorithm of Volterra neural network traffic flow. Thirdly, we describe multi-step prediction experiments based on chaotic time series VNNTF traffic network model, Volterra prediction filter and BP networks. Finally, we compare the multi-step prediction simulation diagram with the absolute error histogram and normalized root mean square are compared. The experimental results show that the VNNTF neural network multi-step prediction performance is significantly better than those of the Volterra filter and BP neural network.

关 键 词：相空间重构 泛函级数 多步预测 VNN神经网络 算法 混沌 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TP183[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]