基于供应链和集对变权模型的食品安全评价与预警  

Food Safety Evaluating and Pre-warning Based on Supply Chain and Set Pairs Variable Weight Model

作　　者：雷勋平[1,2] 邱广华[1] 杜春晓[2] 唐润[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210006 [2]铜陵学院农村经济与文化研究所,安徽铜陵244000 [3]南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2014年第18期41-47,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"基于供应链的我国食品安全风险传导与治理结构研究"(13CGL125);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"供应链视角下我国食品安全监管与预警体系研究"(12YJC630082);江苏省高校自然科学基金面上项目"食品供应链质量安全控制机制设计"(13KJB550012);高等教育振兴计划人才项目"安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划"(皖教秘人[2014]120号)

摘　　要：食品安全评价与预警能有效预防和减少食品安全事件的发生,保障食品安全及其质量。基于供应链视角,通过对我国典型食品安全事件进行分析,探究影响食品安全的关键因素,构建食品安全评价与预警指标体系。以集对论和变权理论为基础,综合分析各关键因素的同一性、差异性和对立性,有效结合集对论与指标权重的惩罚-激励机制,建立食品安全集对变权评价与预警模型,并以某省食品龙头企业JCD公司2012年的食品安全数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:该模型针对食品安全状况及其评价与预警特征,采用权重变异系数突出某些指标的有利(或不利)影响,在常权与变权情况下JCD公司的食品安全评价与预警等级分别为重警(I)和无警(IV),两者差异较大,且变权情况下评价与预警结果与JCD实际情况较为接近。说明变权能够克服传统分析方法处理食品安全评价与预警问题的不足,较好地保证评价与预警结果客观,从而增强食品安全评价与预警的科学性,为政府部门制定食品安全监管与风险治理政策提供现实依据。Food safety evaluating and pre - warning can effectively prevent and reduce food safety accidents, and guarantee food safety and quality. From the view of supply chain, an index system of food safety evaluating and pre - warning was es- tablished by analyzing our typical food safety accidents and exploring its key influence factors. After comprehensively analy- zing every key factor＇ s identical- discrepancy contrary characters and effectively combining set pairs theory with encour- agement and punishment mechanisms of index weight, the paper built set pairs variable weight model of food safety evalua- ting and pre - warning based on set pairs and variable weight theory. The model was applied to the food safety data empiri- cal research of JCD Company in 2012, as a leading company of one province. The results showed that, according to food safety situation and its evaluating and pre - warning characters, beneficial or bad effects of some index can be highlighted with the weight variance coefficient. Under the constant and variable weight, the food safety evaluating and pre - warning situation could be divided into heavy warning （Ⅰ） and no -warning （Ⅱ）, which were different obviously. And the evalua- ting and pre - warning result under the variable weight was closer to JCD actual situation. So we can know the variable weight overcomes deficiency in dealing with food safety evaluating and pre - warning with traditional method, guarantees the evaluating result objectivity, enhances the evaluating scientific and gives realistic basis for making food safety supervision and risk governance policy of our government.

关 键 词：供应链 食品安全 集对论 变权 评价与预警 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济] F224