探讨新陈代谢GM（1,1）和线性回归耦合模型在卫生人力资源预测中的应用：以护理人员相对数预测为例  

Study on the application of information renewal GM （1,1）—linear regression coupling model in the prediction of health personnel resources： taking nurses relative number prediction for example

作　　者：高启胜 史长文[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江医学院,杭州310053 [2]浙江大学医学院附属邵逸夫医院ICU病房

出　　处：《中华医学科研管理杂志》2014年第4期392-394,403,共4页Chinese Journal of Medical Science Research Management

基　　金：2012年浙江省社科联重点研究课题成果（2012Z36）;2014年浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目（2014KYA048）

摘　　要：目的 以护理人员相对数预测为例,探讨新陈代谢GM（1,1）和线性回归耦合模型的在卫生人力资源预测中的应用,提供卫生人力预测方法学参考.方法 采用新陈代谢GM（1,1）和线性回归耦合模型进行预测拟合分析.结果 新陈代谢GM（1,1）模型预测值与实际值拟合误差较小,耦合模型预测精度高.结论 耦合模型弥补了灰色系统模型中不含线性因素的不足,又改善了线性回归预测模型中不能表达指数增长的缺陷,模型构建合理可行.Objective Taking nurses relative number prediction for example,this paper discussed the application of Information Renewal GM （1,1）—Linear Regression Coupling Model in the prediction of health personnel resources,so as to provide methodology reference for forecasting health personnel.Methods The information renewal GM（1,1） and linear regression coupling model was built and explored to predict and fit analyzing.Results The error between the predictive value that calculated by information renewal GM（1,1） and the actual value was small,and the prediction accuracy of coupling model was high.Conclusion The coupling model not only remedied the defect that grey system model did not including linear factors,but also improved the fact that linear forecasting model could not express exponential growth.Therefore the coupling model was reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：新陈代谢GM(1 1) 线性模型 卫生人力 预测 

分 类 号：R47[医药卫生—护理学]