中国广义价格指数的构建及其货币政策含义  

A Research of the Construction of Generalized Price Index and Its Implication for Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：丁慧[1] 范从来[1] 钱丽华[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2014年第5期88-98,共11页China Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目"经济转型背景下稳定物价的货币政策"(IRT13020);国家社会科学基金重点项目"居民收入来源结构优化研究"(11AJL003);江苏省普通高校博士研究生科研创新计划资助项目(KYLX_0004)的资助

摘　　要：在经济全球化快速推进、金融市场迅速发展的大背景下,资产价格剧烈波动和一般物价水平相对稳定在较长时期内并存,通货膨胀呈现出较为明显的"结构性"特征。目前的金融宏观调控主要是针对价格水平变动做出反应,通货膨胀机理的深刻变化,使得金融宏观调控关注更加广泛意义上的整体物价水平稳定成为必要。本文基于动态因子模型构建了反映中国整体物价水平的广义价格指数,并进行实证分析,发现广义价格指数在衡量经济周期变化、度量整体物价水平方面都要优于传统的居民消费价格指数CPI,因此可以作为货币政策操作的重要参考目标。Against the background of rapid advance in economic globalization and the boom in financial markets, asset price fluctuates drastically while general price level remains relatively stable, leading to significant ＂structural＂ features of the inflation. Due to profound changes in the inflation mechanism, it is necessary for financial macro-regulation which mainly re- sponds to changes in the price level to pay attention to the overall price stability in a broader sense. Based on Dynamic Factor Model, this study constructs a generalized price index which can reflect the overall price level in Chinese economy. Empirical results show that the generalized price index is superior to traditional CPI in reflecting the economic cycle variations and measuring the overall price level, thus the new index could serve as an important reference target in important monetary policy operations.

关 键 词：动态因子模型 广义价格指数 经济周期波动 资产价格 

分 类 号：F726.1[经济管理—产业经济] F822.0