基于LMDI方法的中国民航业碳排放因素的指数分解  

Index Decomposition of the Factors Influence China Civil Aviation Markets' Carbon Emissions Based on LMDI Method

作　　者：陈其霆[1] 陆晨婷[1] 周德群[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106

出　　处：《天津大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第5期397-403,共7页Journal of Tianjin University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071346)

摘　　要：2008年欧盟通过的将航空业纳入EU-ETS的提议草案,使得民航业的碳排放问题成为碳减排中的热点问题之一。中国民航业在CO2总排放量占比虽小但是增长迅速,而欧盟的这一政策如果付诸实施将给中国民航业带来一定的冲击。文章采用对数平均Divisia分解法建立中国民航业碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了1985—2010年间民航业运输总收入、航线结构、单位运输收入周转量、能源强度、CO2排放系数等五个因素对民航业CO2排放量的影响。实证分析结果表明:民航业CO2排放量上升主要由运输总收入的增长引起,单位运输收入周转量和能源强度的下降则遏制了CO2排放量的上升。基于上述分析提出了中国民航业实现碳减排的应对策略和建议。EU pass of draft proposal to include aviation industy into EU-ETS by EU in 2008 has further highlightedthe problem about the carbon emissions in civil aviation. Although China＇s civil aviation does not account to much to the global greenhouse gas emissions, it has a high speed of development. Analyzing the different factors influencing the CO2 emissions of China＇s civil aviation helps to seek reasonable measures to reduce carbon emissions of civil aviation. This thesis established a decomposition model for the factors influencing the CO2 emissions of China＇s civil aviationon the basis of concluding the status quo of CO2 emissions by using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method （LMDI）. Then the aulthor analyzed five factors the affecting CO2 emissions, including a） China Civil Aviation Markets＇ transport revenue; b）the air routes distribution of China Civil Aviation Markets; e） turn over volume every transport revenue; d）energy intensity; e）Coefficient of Carbon dioxide emission. The empirical results show that China Civil Aviation Markets＇ transport revenue should be responsible for the increasing trend of Civil aviation CO2 emissions, the air routes distributionimpacts turn out to be small, theenergy intensity and Coefficient of Carbon dioxide emission help to restrain the growth of C02emissions. Based on the above analysis and considering the status quo of CO2 emissions of China＇s civil aviation and the EU 2008 Direetive＇s requirement, the thesis offered some references for China＇s Civil Aviation to reduce carbon emissions from the technical aspects, economic measures and operational optimization.

关 键 词：民航业 碳排放 对数平均狄氏指数方法 指数分解分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]