基于Petri网的海上事故应急流程绩效评价方法  

Performance evaluation method of marine accident emergency procedure based on Petri Net

作　　者：尤庆华[1] 杨伟伟[1] 胡甚平[1] 轩少永[1] 陈莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2014年第3期12-17,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51149001);广东省交通运输厅科技项目(201202004);上海海事大学校基金(20120057)

摘　　要：为提高海上交通事故应急处置能力,提出一种基于Petri网的海上事故应急流程绩效评价方法.根据模糊随机Petri网(Stochastic Petri Net,SPN)理论,结合主要存在的船体受损、人员伤亡、火灾爆炸和海洋污染等4种事故类型,确立各事故类型的应急流程,并分析各流程因素的逻辑关系,构建海上事故应急流程的模糊SPN模型.通过基于该模型的马尔科夫链得到各种状态下的稳态概率表达式.利用模糊集理论对各个因素进行静态分析和动态分析,最终得到各种状态下稳态概率的变化情况.案例结果表明,当发生海上交通事故时,此模型能够体现各因素对整个应急流程绩效的影响,并能通过数值变化趋势反映不同状况下海上事故应急流程的关键环节,提高风险处置的效率和针对性.In order to enhance the emergency response capability of marine traffic accidents, a performante evaluation method of marine accident emergency procedure based on Petri Net is put forward. According to the fuzzy Stochastic Petri Net （SPN） theory, considering that there mainly exist 4 accident types, i. e. , hull damage, personal injury, fire and explosion, and ocean pollution, the emergency procedure of each accident type is established and the logical relationship of different procedure factors is analyzed, and then the fuzzy SPN model of marine incident emergency procedure is established. Through the Markov chain based on the model, the steady-state probability expressions are obtained under various states. The static analysis and dynamic analysis of each factor are done by the fuzzy set theory to get the changes of the steady-state probability under various states. The result of a case shows that： when a mari- time accident happens, this model can reflect the influence of each factor on the performance of the total emergency procedure; the key points of the marine incident emergency procedure under different situations can be reflected by numerical change trends to improve the efficiency and pertinence of risk management.

关 键 词：海上应急流程 模糊随机Petri网 稳态转移概率 马尔科夫链 绩效评价 

分 类 号：U692[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U698.6[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]