2003年夏季长江三角洲甚高分辨率区域气候模拟  

CLOUD RESOLVABLE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION OVER THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA IN SUMMER DURING 2003

作　　者：吴风波 汤剑平[2] 

机构地区：[1]民航中南空中交通管理局气象中心,广东广州510406 [2]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2014年第4期727-735,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40705029);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428500)共同资助

摘　　要：利用区域气候模式WRF对2003年夏季长江三角洲极端区域气候进行高分辨率模拟,通过与站点观测降水、TRMM反演降水的对比分析表明,模式较合理地模拟出2003年夏季长江三角洲降水的主要特征,模拟的夏季各月平均降水量和强降水中心位置及降水强度都与实况较接近;模拟和观测的江淮流域、长江流域及浙江南部的区域平均逐日降水序列的相关系数较高;模拟出小雨、中雨和暴雨三类不同等级的降水概率特征,对暴雨概率分布的模拟结果最好;还模拟出长江三角洲梅雨期的多次中尺度强暴雨事件,模拟的暴雨发生时间和发生区域及雨带南移、北跳与实况都很接近,但降水量略有偏差。模式合理模拟出2003年夏季高温天气较多以及受多次强降水冷却效应引起长江以南、以北地区温差较大的区域气候特征,模拟的最低、最高气温的空间分布及极大值中心与观测都较接近,最低气温模拟结果更好;还非常好地模拟出了区域平均的逐日最高、最低气温的时间演变特征,比降水更接近观测,并具有更高的时间相关系数。The regional,3 km-resolution climate model WRF was used to simulate the extreme regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta in the summer of 2003,and compared with the station observations and TRMM precipitation data.It shows that the WRF model reasonably simulates the main features of precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta during that time,and the simulated monthly average precipitation,the central area of heavy rainfall and precipitation intensity are all close to the observation.The model also reasonably simulates the temporal evolution of many heavy rain events in the Yangtze River Delta during the Meiyu season,with very high time correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed time series of regional average daily precipitation in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin,Yangtze River basin and southern Zhejiang area.Meanwhile,the WRF model reasonably simulates the probability characteristics of light,moderate and heavy rain,the three different categories of daily precipitation,and the simulated probability distribution of heavy rain is closest to the observation.In addition,the model also reasonably simulates many heavy rain events during the Meiyu season in the Yangtze River Delta,and the occurrence time and area of simulated heavy rainfall and the southward and northward shifts of rain bands are very close to the observation,but with a little bias in precipitation intensity.It reasonably represents the regional climate characteristics of high-temperature weather and significant temperature bias between the south and the north of Yangtze River,which are caused by the cooling effect of many heavy rainfall events during Meiyu season in the Yangtze River Delta in 2003.The distribution and largest-value zones of simulated min.and max.temperature are both close to the observation,and the simulated min.temperature is closer to the observation than the max.one.The simulated time evolutions of daily max.and min.temperature are closer to the observation than the simulated precipitation,with higher time correlation

关 键 词：气候学 夏季降水 高分辨率模拟 区域气候 WRF 长江三角洲 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]