历史城区通勤者出行方式与活动模式交互作用研究  

Interdependency between Commuter's Travel Mode and Activity Patterns Using Co-evolution Logit Model:a Case Study of the Historic Urban Area of Yangzhou City

作　　者：于淼[1] 叶茂[1] 王文渊[1] 过秀成[2] 何明[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,南京210094 [2]东南大学交通学院,南京210096 [3]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2014年第4期20-25,30,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:51208256;51178157);住房和城乡建设部科技项目(批准号:2012-K5-13)资助

摘　　要：为了探究历史城区通勤者出行方式与活动模式之间的交互特征,选取根据扬州市历史城区作为研究对象。根据出行调查数据将出行方式和活动模式分别划分为4类,运用协同进化Logit模型理论,对模型的参数进行了合理设置和标定,分别建立出行方式选择和活动模式交互选择的多项Logit模型,与未考虑交互选择对比发现,交互后能够提高模型的总体命中率。研究结果表明:公共交通出行的通勤者与简单出行链HWH互为正相关;电动车通勤者与活动模式HW+MH和HW+OH互为负相关,说明历史城区通勤者较少选择电动车完成非工作出行;慢行方式对活动模式HW+OH的相关系数为1.052,说明使用慢行出行的通勤者倾向选择活动模式HW+OH。To explore the interdependency between the choices of the commuter travel mode and activity pattern,the historic urban area of Yangzhou City is chosen as the case study.Firstly,travel modes and activity patterns are classified into four categories respectively based on the survey data collected.Then,the co-evolution multinomial Logit models are developed based on the joint choice of travel mode and activity pattern.By comparing with the results from the models without considering interactions,the model hit ratios are increased.The study results show that commuters who choose public transport are positive correlated with simple travel chain HWH,while the electro-mobile is negative correlated with the activity pattern of HW＋MH and HW＋OH,which means that commuters in historic urban rarely use the electro-mobile to accomplish no-work travel;the correlation coefficient between slow modes and HW＋OH is as high as 1.052,which indicates that travelers using slow mode almost all have HW＋OH activities.

关 键 词：出行行为 出行方式与活动模式交互特征 协同进化Logit模型 历史城区 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]