最小耗能原理与地震预测问题  

The Principle of Least Energy Consumption and Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：周筑宝[1] 唐松花[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《地震》2014年第4期50-60,共11页Earthquake

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:51178474)

摘　　要：本文认为最小耗能原理是一个与地震现象密切相关的自然界的普适性原理。在简要介绍该原理的基础上,对所谓"地震带"、"板内地震"、"特征地震"、"地震空区"等有关问题作了探讨,提出并详细地介绍了一条根据最小耗能原理建立地震预测、预报准则的技术路线;最后对地震的预测、预报是否可能实现等问题进行了讨论。The principle of least energy consumption is a general one of nature, closely related to earthquakes. Based on a brief introduction of the principle, the problems of seismic zone, earthquake in slabs, characteristic earthquake, andseismic gap are discussed. A new approach is proposed and introduced to establish criteria for earthquake prediction and forecast according to the principle of least energy consumption. Lastly, the problem about whether earthquake prediction and forecast ispossibleor impossible to be achieved has been discussed.

关 键 词：最小耗能原理 地震预测、预报准则 非线性 非平衡态热力学 自组织临界性 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]