基于水资源系统的流域干旱风险评价——以漳卫河流域为例  

Drought Risk Assessment Based on Water Resources System:a Case Study in Zhangwei River Basin

作　　者：王刚[1,2] 严登华[2] 杜秀敏 于志磊 申丽霞 翁白莎[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市环境保护科学研究院,北京100037 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]山西省张峰水库建设管理局,山西太原030002 [4]水利部海委璋河上游管理局,河北邯郸056006

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第4期98-104,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("九七三"计划)项目"气候变化对黄淮海地区水循环的影响机理和水资源安全评估"(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究"(51279207)

摘　　要：基于风险理论,从水资源系统的角度剖析流域干旱风险的构成,分别从降水、用水和水利工程调节的角度讨论构建干旱致灾因子的危险性指标、干旱承灾体的暴露性指标以及干旱孕灾环境的脆弱性指标,建立流域干旱风险评价方法框架,并以漳卫河流域为例进行了应用研究。评价结果表明,漳卫河流域13个评价单元中,有4个评价单元属于高风险区,3个单元属于低风险区,其他6个单元为中等风险区。各评价单元的干旱危险性因子指标值差别不大,流域干旱高风险区的主要贡献因素是较大的用水需求和缺乏稳定的供水水源。Based on the risk theory,the composition of drought risk is firstly analyzed from the perspective of water resources system.The hazard index of drought-inducing factors,the exposure index of drought-disaster bear-ers and the vulnerability index of disaster-formative environment are then established from the perspective of precip-itation,water use and water resources projects,respectively.A framework of drought risk assessment method is thus proposed and it is finally applied in Zhangwei River Basin.The result shows that there are four evaluation units of the total 13 belonging to the high-risk zones,two evaluation units belonging to low-risk zones and seven others of middle-risk zones.All of the four high-risk zones are distributed in the plain area.The value of hazard indices of each evaluation unit shows little difference,which indicates that,the main contribution factors of drought high-risk zones are large water consumption and lack of steady water supply.

关 键 词：干旱风险评价 危险性 暴露性 脆弱性 水资源系统 漳卫河流域 

分 类 号：P42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]