ARIO模型对灾害引起的部门经济损失数据完备程度的敏感性分析——以湖南为例  

Sensitivity Analysis of ARIO Model to the Data Completeness of Department Economic Loss Caused by Disaster——A Case Study in Hu Nan

作　　者：张鹏[1] 李宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系,河北廊坊065000 [2]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室北京师范大学,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第4期105-110,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK03B07);国家自然科学基金项目(41171401)

摘　　要：重大自然灾害恢复重建的时间长短与灾害造成的间接经济损失大小直接相关,因而影响灾害造成的总损失,评估灾害的间接经济损失是灾后制定减灾政策的重要内容。ARIO模型为评估灾害对经济系统冲击造成的间接损失提供了一种有效途径。但在模型的应用中,存在模型所需的直接经济损失数据与部门合并所需的输入数据对应一致问题,因而需要考察部门合并对模拟结果的影响,从而得到ARIO模型对模拟部门需求的适应性。应用ARIO模型,结合湖南省经济状况和救灾政策,分别编制了18部门和13部门当地投入产出表,模拟了1998年湖南省经济在洪涝灾害后的恢复情况,模拟结果表明不同数量部门的间接损失模拟结果相差在10%以内,同时建议应用ARIO模拟部门数量应不少于12个。The time of recovery and reconstruction after major natural disasters directly related to the indirect economic losses,which influence the total losses caused by the disaster,therefore,the indirect economic loss as-sessment of the disaster is an important content to develop mitigation policies after the disaster.The ARIO model provides an effective way for the indirect loss assessment of the disaster caused by the impact of economic system. But in the application of the model,there is a problem of correspond of direct economic loss of data and the model of input data,which need research departments merger effects on the simulation results,so as to obtain the adapta-bility of ARIO model on simulation department.Economic situation and policy of Hunan province is synthesized by the application of ARIO model,and 18 departments and input-output table of 13 departments of Hunan Province in 1998 are set respectively and the economic recovery after the flood disaster is simulated.The simulation results show that the difference of indirect loss with different number of departments within 10%,at the same time this pa-per proposed application of ARIO Simulation Department should no less than 12.Study of identifying restrictions on the use of this model is of great use to the promotion and application of the model.

关 键 词：间接损失 评估 ARIO模型 投入产出模型 重建模拟 经济影响 湖南 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]